Friend is involved in one of these.
The whole idea of psychedelic medicine seems interesting.
Might take a small punt if I can figure a way to invest easily.
The shareholders just get their money back if they don’t do a deal in time.
Here’s a little more on this. Basically, Netflix’s first-mover advantage has kind of evaporated and now they’re going to have to do the hard work of competing in a market with other competitors. It doesn’t sound like they’re ready. Their big idea is to add ads to Netflix to reduce subscription costs. You know, like every app you’ve ever deleted from your phone because they’re so annoying. This doesn’t sound good for Netflix, if they’re making less appealing content than everyone else and raising prices people will keep switching.
Just skimmed it. But isnt one reason they lost customers because they cut off 700k russians?
That’s a pretty big ommision from that article. (Unless I missed it. Like I said. I skimmed)
Their guidance was a 2.5m gain, they would have gained 0.5m excluding Russia losses, so still a pretty big miss.
Looks like they projected a gain of 2M subscribers and instead lost 200K, and next quarter they now expect to lose another 2M. That’s around 1% of their subscribers gone in a quarter.
You start looking at them as a value investor and it’s ugly. This is the problem with all of these absurdly priced stocks. NFLX is now below $249 premarket, it’s 64.5% off it’s all-time high of $700. It’s still somewhere in the neighborhood of 2-3 times above what I think most value investors would consider paying.
It’s still trading at like 5 times book value, and like 22.5 times earnings or something like that. This despite having a negative tangible book value and a declining subscriber base.
Someone like Amazon would just buy out Netflix before they ever got that low. This recent dip is probably already putting them at least in range of being an acquisition target for one of the big 3 tech companies.
Yeah but it seems like a third party buyer would only value them for their non-redundant subscribers, their non-redundant infrastructure, and their content library.
Their infrastructure should be ~worthless to Amazon, and many of their subscribers would be redundant. Netflix values their content library at $31B, I’d take the under. But let’s say that Amazon was willing to buy them just for the content and that $31B was a fair valuation.
That’s $70 a share. So would Amazon really swoop in and buy them before they got that low? I’m not so sure.
It would make more sense for a company that didn’t already have a good streaming platform with a lot of subscribers who wanted to get into the space. Like if, say, NBC didn’t like the way things were going with Peacock or something.
This pretty much describes Amazon. Prime video is a terrible streaming service, and people only “subscribe” to it because it’s bundled with the other perks of Amazon Prime.
Why is it a terrible streaming service? I don’t have much problem with it when I use it. The interface seems ok, the streaming itself doesn’t stop very often (certainly not as often as Netflix does).
Are you just talking about available content? If so, then do you think Amazon gets a better return spending like $30-50B on Netflix or spending $30-50B creating good content?
I think they’d likely get better return buying Netflix because spending 30-50B on creating good content is something they would have already done if it was that easy. Content is king in the streaming wars and Amazon is way behind despite having deep pockets.
In my experience, the platform itself is also the worst of any streaming service I’ve used.
Yeah spending that amount on content would take a long time, but they could probably get a few legacy series within a year or two on the level of Ozark.
Like in ease of use?
With today’s crash, Netflix P/E is now 20. That seems like…a decent price?
Apple is 28x. Amazon is 48x. Tesla is 204x.
Netflix has a lot of high paid software engineers an Amazon would want. They also have a ruthless reputation for employee evaluation which Amazon would like. The ROI on SWEs in big tech is pretty crazy. Being able to get a huge block in already functioning teams is worth a lot. I would guess 10M / SWE for pre-filtered senior/staff level SWEs is a ‘bargain’ price. If Netflix has 5k SWEs, that’s 50B.
I thought Netflix was supposed to have way better tech (e.g., compression algorithms) than its competitors.
https://twitter.com/wallstmemes/status/1516794123910619144?s=21&t=oxQOwNuiiP8aoZdBPmaB-A
LOL Netflix -56% since Bill Ackman started buying it, lol hedge funds.
In terms of content it used to be quite good as it had lots of HBO content, but once HBO launched their own service most of the good stuff has disappeared.
It’s a decent price if you expect it to continue to grow, right?
Like to me the proper current valuation of NFLX is a question of what their earnings range is likely to be in a year or five or 10 years.
It’s worth the higher of that number or what an AMZN or AAPL would buy them for.
We agree TSLA is way overpriced, so toss the 204x. AAPL imo is overpriced but not absurd, given their track record and the stability. AMZN you’re paying for the dominance and thus the virtually non-existent risk of it going belly up.
I don’t think the stability or dominance applies whatsoever to NFLX.
HBO max app is awful, just complete trash to use
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Well, they spent $1 billion on LOTR, just make 30 seasons of that