I’d be curious to see multi-year graphs of this.
Not saying it’s insignificant, but much like crime stats, I take any stats from 2020 to 2021 with some healthy skepticism.
I have a buddy in Florida who sold his house sometime about a year ago, thinking he was a real estate genius who’d sell at the top, rent for awhile until a correction then buy another house. Before the next couple even moved in, the husband died. The wife decided then that she didn’t want to move, so relisted it and sold it for like $80k more 2 months after my buddy sold it to them.
Flash forward a year, my buddy hates living in an apartment. His rent is getting jacked up 50%, and the housing market has obviously went much higher. So now he has decided he wants to buy another house, and is putting in offers 10+% over list price on houses the day they list. Only for them to get like 30 offers within 2 days and his offer gets declined.
That’s weird, market timing usually works.
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that’s not everywhere though
should just move overseas until things calm down
I bought more stonks today.
‘Sell the build-up, Buy the invasion’ is supposed to work out right
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The only mistake you can make with stocks is selling them like a coward.
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Also it’s important to have at least 5% of your portfolio in crypto so you have more things on your ticker to watch drill
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Right now we are tanking because of uncertainty about what Putin is going to do. Once it is certain that Putin is going to invade and kill lots of people this thing is going to rocket.
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Also we are nervous Powell is going to do a 50 bps interest rate increase. After he actually does this the rocket ship will depart.
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I still hold to the (admittedly unsubstantiated) theory that the market is full of people holding stocks at valuations they know are bullshit, and they are nervous about literally everything because literally anything can cause the market to crash. So every piece of news is treated like it could be The Big One and there’s a big drop as people try to get out before the mother of all crashes, and then when that doesn’t materialize they rush back in to try to get back on the Exuberance Train To Infinity.
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March 2020: we are nervous that this virus has the potential to kill millions and millions of people. not stonks.
April 2020 - present: virus successfully kills millions and millions of people. STONKS.
Yeah, it’s also a bit of…
March 2020: shit, covid is going to cost us a boatload money.
April 2020: hot damn! Covid is going to boost our bottom line!
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Eh the NOT STONKS fear wasn’t necessarily that the virus would kill a bunch of people. It was that we would functionally cease to be an international economy due to restrictions on movement and trade, and that a ton of companies would basically halt operations causing a global economic depression.
Thankfully the powers that be decided to not fuck around with fiscal and monetary stimulus when it was needed and prevented anywhere near the worst case outcomes from happening.
It’s why I laugh at the OMGGGGG INFLATIONNNNNN people. Think about the range of outcomes from March 2020 to now, and the fact that the biggest complaint we have is temporary inflation from massive rounds of stimulus. We did all right.
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No one had any idea how bad COVID would get in early 2020. ~a million dead in the US is probably on the low end of what people were predicting at the time.
I’m more than all set there! 
Powers that be also decided that public health measures wouldnt be allowed to interfere with the economy for any appreciable length of time. I think many of us missed bad on that in March 2020 (I 100% missed on this)
the last time we had this level of inflation stonks didn’t go up for a long time
ie, in the 70s stonks basically were even across that decade so they lost value in purchasing power terms
so if it continues you’ll see some stocks continue to get hammered
My comment was tongue in cheek, but you are 100% correct. Fidelity’s institutional investor sales team sent me a really good white paper where they break down the last several decades of global capital markets by “regimes”, Deflationary Stress, Inflationary Stress, Low Volatility Falling Interest Rates, Low Volatility High Interest Rates and Recovery. Inflationary Stress really stands out as the regime that consistently produces terrible real returns for both stocks and bonds. In every other regime a diversified portfolio does pretty well.