The TSLA Market / Economy

Dots are awesome. I’ll stand by that.

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Wtf is Cella’s and Nik n Nip?

Those candies suck. Junior Mints and Andes only look good because they’re surrounded by crap. I can think of 25 candies I’d grab first as a kid than any of those.

I’m a good n plenty fan, but I understand I’m on an island on that one. I don’t think any kids like it.

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I’ve always loved Good & Plenty. I think I got a 5 lb bag from my grandma when I was a little kid and she always had them in the house for me.

I used to really like Dots but now I find them too sticky, feel like they’re going to rip my teeth out.

You probably liked mustard as a kid, too.

https://twitter.com/doctorow/status/1404839267424038912

Private equity - fuck these guys so hard. Hey let’s take a brand name like Hertz that still has some cache, and absolutely squeeze every last drop of blood out of it by preying on our customers with bogus $400 cleaning fees.

Mustard? Ha! I could only dream of such luxury.

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I’m the only one here that likes Tootsie Rolls? Come at me brahs.

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Possibly my spiciest take ever, flavored tootsie rolls >> regular tootsie rolls. Regular tootsie rolls are like a c-tier candy.

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As a child I was always hungry and would eat almost anything but tootsie rolls went in the trash.

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Did a WSB dive for a bit, seems like the usual suspects. ARVL surged today and has a few recent posts touting it so it’ll be the next one I dive into.

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Yup the restaurant I worked for swore up and down that we were different and special and we were going to run our company a certain way and never ever change and we didn’t give a fuck what you thought, and then we sold out to private equity and they changed the menu to cheap food, drastically slashed everyone’s hours so less people worked every shift, got rid of all the managers, put cheap beer on the menu, started doing things like secret shoppers so they could fire people, bought fake yelp reviews, downgraded POS software (this was fucking horrible and was the day the job died for me), didn’t train us for anything, laid off everyone when the pandemic hit, replaced all servers with an app ordering system and started hiring new people after asking like 10% of the FOH staff back.

Private equity is just plain awful.

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QFT. There’s no situation they actually make better. They’re pure predatory rent seekers. There are no projects that wouldn’t get done without their involvement, and their entire playbook is full of toxic ‘it makes no sense that’s allowed’ angle shots.

They use tax arbitrage and a complete lack of humanity and morality to impose widespread misery and get away with it. It’s basically a sociopath’s wet dream.

I’d put flavored in c-tier and regular a couple of tiers lower than that, so I guess I agree.

Private Equity is basically the modern economy in a nutshell.

It starts out as a relatively honest pursuit to take businesses that have a solid business but don’t handle the financials super well and grow them through handling the financials.

Then it ends up with a ton of smart people and capital rushing to the industry because they see the bonanza of free $$ coming down the pipeline.

This then causes there to be fewer and fewer businesses that are “Good business proposition, bad financial management” and the Private Equity people get more and more ruthless with pushing their edge to survive, which means getting into more predatory behavior and more financial chicanery.

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My friend sent me this yesterday to look into. Thought? Is our money safe on there? My answer was yes. The research group that made the allegations is short DK stock, so they stand to benefit from crashing the price. They’re not exactly impartial. That being said, the allegations could still be accurate.

Shot really high in premarket so I didn’t pull the trigger. Currently up ~6% today, but lower than it was premarket.

It ends up being a little more than 80 if I’m doing the quick and dirty math correctly and if I’m reading the registration statement correctly. (I’ve never heard of this company and am looking at the statement before finishing my second cup of coffee, so forgive any errors.) I thought it would be interesting to actually go through the math, rather than just take the news article headlines for granted.

The $200 million you reference is the revenue, not earnings. Most recent earnings is $50.21 million (you want to look at net income, not net income attributable to common shareholders, for reasons I’ll explain later).

The thing that makes this complicated is figuring out what their market cap is going to be after the offering. The big issue is that you can’t just look at the number of shares they’re issuing in this offering (somewhere around 23-27 million, depending on whether the underwriters exercise their option to purchase shares). You’ve also got to take into account currently-outstanding shares, including some preferred stock that’s going to be converted to common.

If you look at the capitalization schedule, which takes into account the anticipated offering and related transactions, you get about 178 million shares outstanding. At an offering price of $20, that gives you $3.56 billion/$50 million of earnings (the reason you look at net income rather than income attributable to common is that you don’t want to exclude the income attributable to preferred shareholders, since you’re assuming conversion of the preferred to get the 178 million shares of common), for a P/E ratio of about 71.

But they’ve also got a bunch of options and warrants outstanding that are likely to be exercised in the future (because they have very low strike prices). Altogether, those add up to about 33 million additional shares, adjusting for the cash you’d receive upon exercise. That gives a total share count of about 210.9 million, for an implied market cap at $20 of $4.2 billion, or a P/E ratio of 84.