The TSLA Market / Economy

i’m not sure that the inflation adjusted interest rate is worth having to visit Treasury Direct’s 1994 website.

So apparently, the bonds that I bought in my account for my wife are “gift securities” in my “gift box”?

And the one for my daughter is “Linked Accounts”?

This is incredibly confusing. I really have no faith they aren’t going to just completely lose my info.

Was I supposed to use separate accounts for my spouse?

YOU CAN’T HIT THE FUCKING BACK BUTTON WITHOUT IT LOGGING YOU OUT.

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I log in 2x per year: once to drop $10k in my account and then again for my wife. Takes less than 5 minutes total. I don’t use the back button. Worth it to me.

Free $900 a year

Can’t hit the back button

Which red button

Agreed, website is legit terrible with just walls of text and a non-intuitive system for logging in. But it’s 10 percent interest.

Speaking of I bonds, the rate gets adjusted May 1 and November 1. The Treasury page shows a formula for calculating this rate which is a combined rate of fixedRate + (2 * semiannual inflation rate) + (fixedRate * semiannual inflation rate). For the May 1 adjustment, there was a 0.00 fixed Rate and 4.81% semiannual inflation rate => 9.62%. The page also notes they use the non-seasonally adjusted CPI for all Urban Consumers for all items. The BLS data shows CPI for May was 5.0% and in August 8.3%. So, am I understanding this correctly that I bonds could see 15% for the combined rate on November 1? I realize it depends on the latest CPI numbers and adjusted that number down slightly compared to August’s numbers, but this just seems absurd.

I got $10,000 frozen earlier this year because I screwed up the “Registration List” part when buying the bonds and it took 4 months for them to return my money.

Holy shit, just noticed the tables at the bottom of the Treasury page linked in my previous post. These are the historical current composite rates for I bonds. This thing crushes, up the $10k limit please and ty.

ETA: this is the rate you’d get right now if you bought during the 6 month period

From Through Composite rate for your-6month earning period starting during
May 2022 Oct. 2022 9.62%
Nov. 2021 Apr. 2022 9.62%
May 2021 Oct. 2021 9.62%
Nov. 2020 Apr. 2021 9.62%
May 2020 Oct. 2020 9.62%
Nov. 2019 Apr. 2020 9.83%
May 2019 Oct. 2019 10.14%
Nov. 2018 Apr. 2019 10.14%
May 2018 Oct. 2018 9.93%
Nov. 2017 Apr. 2018 9.72%
May 2017 Oct. 2017 9.62%
Nov. 2016 Apr. 2017 9.62%
May 2016 Oct. 2016 9.72%
Nov. 2015 Apr. 2016 9.72%
May 2015 Oct. 2015 9.62%
Nov. 2014 Apr. 2015 9.62%
May 2014 Oct. 2014 9.72%
Nov. 2013 Apr. 2014 9.83%
May 2013 Oct. 2013 9.62%
Nov. 2012 Apr. 2013 9.62%
May 2012 Oct. 2012 9.62%
Nov. 2011 Apr. 2012 9.62%
May 2011 Oct. 2011 9.62%
Nov. 2010 Apr. 2011 9.62%
May 2010 Oct. 2010 9.83%
Nov. 2009 Apr. 2010 9.93%
May 2009 Oct. 2009 9.72%
Nov. 2008 Apr. 2009 10.35%
May 2008 Oct. 2008 9.62%
Nov. 2007 Apr. 2008 10.88%
May 2007 Oct. 2007 10.98%
Nov. 2006 Apr. 2007 11.09%
May 2006 Oct. 2006 11.09%
Nov. 2005 Apr. 2006 10.67%
May 2005 Oct. 2005 10.88%
Nov. 2004 Apr. 2005 10.67%
May 2004 Oct. 2004 10.67%
Nov. 2003 Apr. 2004 10.77%
May 2003 Oct. 2003 10.77%
Nov. 2002 Apr. 2003 11.30%
May 2002 Oct. 2002 11.72%
Nov. 2001 Apr. 2002 11.72%
May 2001 Oct. 2001 12.76%
Nov. 2000 Apr. 2001 13.18%
May 2000 Oct. 2000 13.39%
Nov. 1999 Apr. 2000 13.18%
May 1999 Oct. 1999 13.08%
Nov. 1998 Apr. 1999 13.08%
Sept. 1998 Oct. 1998 13.18%

I think you are wildly misinterpreting that table. It’s showing the current composite rate for different vintages of I-bond purchases.

It is not showing you that I-bonds have returned double digits for the past 25 years.

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Yeah, these bonds would have been pretty shitty up until like 3 years ago, right? When inflation was flat.

TY for clarifying, a small misread can lead to some crazy thoughts. I was sitting here questioning all investment advice I’ve ever received.

I also found this table which maps things a little better for my brain. In Sept 98 there was a 3.40% fixed rate and 0.62% semiannual inflation rate leading to a 4.66% composite rate for the time. The fixed rate stays with the bonds purchased during that time, which in my mental model I just assumed those got adjusted each May/November. I think I didn’t pay much attention to the fixed rate since it is at 0.0% right now :harold:

Yes, the only reason it’s showing current rates for different vintage purchases is that different vintages have different base rates. So current composite rates for older vintages are higher because those older vintages have non-zero base rates. (Unlike purchases in the last couple of years, which have zero base rates.)

Right - the real secret is to go back in time and get those sweet, sweet 3-4% base rates.

Ya, and I don’t know if they get back to those rates given the trend since origin. I’m not even sure what controls that rate.

I did the math and a $10k investment September 1998 would’ve been around $36k in November 2021 using the actual historical rate. Whereas, in my interpretation that same investment turns into $108k. :vince1:

Some of those old ones that show 13 percent right now were paying 4-5 percent (the “fixed” portion of the composite rate) for years when the best you could do on a safe bond was much less than that. But any that were bought in recent years just prior to the spike where not great because the fixed portion was close to zero on those.

Feel dumb asking, but with the ibonds you set up the treasury direct account and hope you are on the lucky side and it’s super easy. Buy the 10k, and then when it matures in a year it just reverts to a cash position that you ship back to your bank or do you have to do something to “sell” them?

They don’t mature in a year – you just cannot redeem them for a year. If you redeem them in the first 5 years, you lose the last 3 months interest. And there is no selling, as they cannot trade in secondary markets. You would just redeem them when you want to (after at least one year) and TD will send to your bank.

Everybody says to make sure you deposit with a bank you plan to stay with for the long haul because changing banks is a pain at TD.

Read this if you want the full scoop on I-bonds.

I savings bonds - Bogleheads(often,traded%20in%20the%20secondary%20market.

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Well damn, I was hoping to park some money there for a future down payment, but my guess is it’ll be 2-3 years from now. Still probably worth it even after losing the last 3 months I guess.

The interest rate is high enough that withdrawing early is still better than most alternatives. The longer you keep it in the less relative impact the early withdrawal has.

so the fixed rate portion on the ibonds should go up starting Nov 1, im assuming it would be close to the current fed rate of 3-3.25%, if in 5 years inflation goes down to 1% is it possible to only sell the ibonds with 0 fixed rate and keep the ones with 3-4% fixed rate?

this is the first time ive ever owned a bond- i have no idea how they work