Senate seems to be heading towards Republican control. Dems in power not on team we are already fucked should now be having conversations with Sotomayor about retiring during the lame duck so that she can be replaced by a 40 something.
You think sinema would allow a lame duck confirmation? I got a bridge to sell ya.
Based on the âitâs always projection with these peopleâ theory of right-wing hand-wringing, I wonder who Alito wants to assassinate?
Donât worry, Republicans would probably allow a confirmation of a Biden pick to replace Sotomayor as long as itâs not right before the election. The month of âSEE??? The Republicans are ACTUALLY quite reasonable on Supreme Court nominations!â op eds in the WSJ, NY Times, and WaPo, would be worth about as much, maybe more, than blocking the nomination.
Theyâve got a 6-3 majority with the ages being: 74, 72, 67, 57, 55, 50⌠And the 74 year old is likely to retire under the next GOP president, the 72 year old might too.
Point is, theyâve got the majority absolutely locked for at least 10 years and thatâs if they run awful and Alito and Roberts both die/retire under Dem presidents with a Dem Senate, which is a combination that may soon be impossible.
If they fade that unlikely parlay, theyâre locked until (probably multiple of) Kavanaugh/Gorsuch/ACB die/retire, so youâre looking at like 30 years.
The biggest threat to their majority is court packing. Adding legitimacy to this SCOTUS by confirming a Biden judge to replace Sotomayor might be the best thing they can do to cement their 6-3 edge.
But 7-2 is better than 6-3
Is it, though? I mean, how often will it actually matter?
Fair point.
Possibly, but Dems might not control who gets nominated from 2025-2029.
7-2 wont matter much more than 6-3 but adding another 40 something conservative potentially extends the runway of majority rule.
I posted it more as a thought exercise anyways as WAAF regardless already.
Guys after 2024 weâre never having legitimate elections again without an actual civil war.
Apparently women.
No, I donât expect them to from 2025 - ? and 2029 is an amazingly best-case scenario thatâs unlikely IMO.
I think adding the legitimacy is what extends the runway the most, but maybe they see it differently.
Yeah, thought exercises are all we have left.
Yeah but after like 2028 you wonât be able to say we donât have legitimate elections without getting shot in the head, so enjoy that while we have it!
(This is one of those posts where Iâm not even sure if this is hyperbolic or prescient. I think itâs somewhat hyperbolic, though!)
I mean, they were going all-in on blocking KBJ and if they were in the majority they would have. No way theyâre giving away a seat for nothing. They understand that might makes right and their base (and most people who are paying 0 attention) dgaf about perceived legitimacy or any of that nonsense.
I disagree because why didnât the Rs just vote to confirm KBJ then? They had an easy chance to confirm her and claim âSee, we are fair, we will confirm a judge for Biden, when the court is still 6-3 so WTF does it matter?â Instead, she got 3 R votes. That was the easiest thing in the world and they still chose partisanship.
Those 3 votes would be enough to confirm a judge even in a 52-48 GOP Senate, as long as Mitch allowed the hearings.
There will never be another hearing for a D nominee in a Republican senate
50 senators had a chance at a âfreeâ vote, KBJ was getting confirmed no matter what. In a 52-48 senate, those 3 are not voting yes.
This has been obvious since the Garland fiasco. They basically have a perma-lock on the SCOTUS.
they wouldnât have gotten those three votes if the senate was 51-49 GOP.