it’s not even “ready to go” - in many cases it’s already passed and will become active at the moment the decision comes down.
I don’t see how the Oklahoma is anything other that a full-fledged head on attempt to overturn Roe.
I think this is hugely wishful thinking on the part of the left.
This miscalculates the endgame of abortion nuts. They aren’t trying to overturn Roe. They are trying to make abortion illegal in all 50 states.
Roe being overturned isn’t the end of the war. It’s the beginning.
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Right when they have a trifecta we’ll really find out how Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski feel. As soon as they have a pro-life majority and Roe is overturned, the federal ban is coming.
There are E-reps that would prefer to keep it just out of reach to keep the base fired up, but that ship has sailed as the full nutso side has taken over. Sadly it will take a full generation or more to swing back the other way. That’s why they are going after education— to try and build Gen Z as a counter to the lib millennials.
FYP
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Daily reminder there is only halfway decent SCOTUS justice
I’d say Sotomayor is legitimately good. Kagan and Breyer suck. Roberts and Kav are terrible. The other three are horror shows.
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Is our new justice more likely to be another Sotomayor or another Kagan/Breyer?
Time will tell of course, but I’m guessing the former.
Unfortunately it doesn’t matter.
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I do not find Sotomayor’s dissent compelling.
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The inevitable Walt Disney Corp. v. Florida SCOTUS Ruling
- 9-0 most obvious first amendment violation ever
- 6-3 fuck you, that’s why
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It’s more likely to be 9-0 in favor of Florida than 9-0 against. Legal scholars seem to agree that they’re well within their rights to take the special district away.
If it’s a split fuck you decision it’ll be 5-4 with Roberts joining the pro-Disney side.
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Pretty sure there is ample precedent explaining that even if a person or other entity is granted something that not everyone is entitled to, it still cannot be taken away for expressly unconstitutional reasons. But you are right that the fuck you decision will more likely be 5-4.
I guess their statements about why they’re doing it could matter, but otherwise I’m pretty sure the state legislature has the authority to take away these special districts. So like they’re within their power, but their reasons are possibly illegal, so it depends on whether they are dumb enough (or smart enough depending on how you look at it) to admit their reasons in blatant enough ways to lose in court.
The reason I say or smart enough is that I think this is a huge blunder, and I think the best case outcome for DeSantis is to have the law struck down and be able to tell his base he fought and tried to take down the Big Bad Grooming Mouse, but the Big Bad Liberal Courts stopped him, all while not suffering the consequences of jacking up property taxes on tons of his constituents.
I don’t think any situation where they actually passed the law is optimal, because any semi-competent campaign will be all about how DeSantis jacked up your taxes for a petty beef, and that is true even if it gets struck down. Dems may not have any of these, but they exist in principle.
They already passed it and he signed it, right? But it doesn’t go into effect until July 2023, so that gives it over a year to get struck down before the next election.
Yeah, it’s passed and signed. I think the far better strategy is to sabre rattle for a few months about the exception and whatever all else to see if you can extract some concessions from Disney without literally passing a bill to jack up property taxes on your constituents for no good reason.
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There is literally no policy the GOP can implement that will hurt them electorally. Some small fraction of people are disgusted by Trump personally, but people who vote Republican are either rich or just straight up fucking morons (or both).
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Dems literally have control of 2 branches of government because yes, Republicans can indeed hurt themselves electorally.
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