It’s this. Anyone that thinks this will backfire in any way on the GOP is the sweetest and summery-est of childs. The backfire theory assumes:
a) hardcore anti-abortioners aren’t actually onboard with the rest of the GOP agenda (lol, they are)
and
b) abortion won’t be on the ballot again (lol, it will be, just watch)
Abortion will be an issue in 2024 because blue states are full of groomers and pedophiles and child murderers, and we will need to protect the sanctity of life by outlawing abortion at a national level. These words will come out of President Ron Desantis’s mouth at some point during the campaign.
My buddy sent me a screen shot of his parents’ texts with him. His Dad says this ruling is very wrong and that abortion rules should come from doctors, not politicians. My buddy says he agrees, but that won’t be the case in 15-28 states.
His mom says he’s exaggerating, and his dad says that if he’s right, “Well, then, in my opinion, people should leave these states and never come back.”
Cool, but can the state punish the woman for heading over there to get an abortion after she leaves the property? Or the abortion provider? I assume they can’t just live there.
IANAL, but… I mean, keep in mind that in their ass backwards minds and in the laws in those states, abortion will be murder. So what laws exist for a state punishing a person who plans a murder in their state, leaves to carry out the murder in another state, then returns to their home state - perhaps with some evidence that gets destroyed?
Pretty sure that’s going to be trivially easy from a legal perspective. I assume planning a murder and destroying evidence are crimes even if the murder is out of jurisdiction.
I mean, it should crank Dem turnout up to about an 11, but we’ll see. It should also hurt the GOP a tiny bid with moderates and help them with their base, which probably nets out as an advantage overall on average but maybe not in a wave election where the base was turning out anyway.
I actually think one of the interesting questions is what happens to the average GOP state level candidate in places like Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Michigan? In theory, it just got harder for them to win on an extremist position on this. Like, people should realize that it’s in the realm of very possible that a GOP trifecta bans all abortions with no exceptions… So in theory it should be harder for an extremist to win, and it should be a bit harder for a pro lifer to win. Do we see a resurgence of pro choice Republicans at the state level in those states over a few cycles and 6-8 years?
Of course, that assumes a level playing field for elections, so… yeah. They can probably just suppress their way around it.
Only realistic way I see this backfiring is if large companies and organizations start punishing red states financially. Gonna be tough because a lot of them LOVE Texas and its low taxes.
But for starters, the NCAA should immediately relocate any championships in states with these bans. Two of the next three Final Fours are in Texas. The January 2024 CFB championship is in Texas too. Move them to another location now.