I think Mitch is just gambling that Manchin and Simema won’t break the filibuster, the US defaults, and 2024 is a cakewalk for Republicans.
Are you saying they could run successfully on “Well Dems had the House, the Senate, and the Presidency when we defaulted so it must be their fault. Vote Republican!”? Do they think we’re stupid? Don’t answer that.
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I mean we don’t have to get rid of the filibuster to pass it. We can roll it into reconciliation.
If it gets rolled into reconciliation, that makes it way more likely cinema and manchin vote for it.
So yeah it doesn’t make sense, I must be something. Rolling it into reconciliation and nuking the filibuster seem like horrible out comes for Dems. They must be somehow predicting Dems refuse the do the reconciliation to force cinema and Manchin until filibuster reform, which they refuse to do?
Mitch might be going senile with the rest of the boomers
It’s just a natural step on the Collapsing Empire 12 step program. There’s basically no way to avoid this without having a government that a) acknowledges that the empire is declining and b) is functional enough to take the steps to enable a soft landing. The American government is neither of those things.
It’s possible, maybe even likely, that they slap together a solution to avoid this at the last minute but you can only manage so many near misses before you get burned.
A political genius has weighed in on the budget and debt ceiling negotiations:
https://twitter.com/brianbeutler/status/1440812393068519424/photo/1
I’m sure a default would be totally catastrophic for me personally, but I don’t think I can take the Dems caving here (and there is no indication they will).
McConnell is the maniac that just shoves all in every fucking hand. Eventually the table wises up and calls (hopefully).
Imagine this. Your rival takes your son hostage and points a gun at him. You, however, have a sniper rifle pointed at your rival and can end the whole thing by shooting the criminal. Instead, you choose to negotiate? Even Dems aren’t that pathetic. Right?
well I’ll answer that and it’s yes, yes, and yes
Now what’s the answer?
Some people don’t believe in killing no matter what. I respect that and I’ll be sure to tell them how much I respect them at their son’s funeral.
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McConnell isn’t shoving all in he’s just sitting back laughing and going we’re not gonna help you suckers.
I read another explanation today that finally made some sense to me.
Basically said what’s gonna happen if the Dems can’t get the reconciliation bill buttoned up and they have to do a stand alone is that it is going to waste a month of the legislative calendar. Obviously a problem given how fragile the agenda currently is and the usual holiday breaks.
Not defaulting but coming close seems like the optimal R play. Defaulting seems kind of risky and unpredictable (costs donors money, Republicans already heavy favorites to win the house, creates chaise blame unpredictable). Just threatening default and making it come down to the last minute throws sand into the economic gears and that softness is probably easier to pin on the party in charge than the chaos of an outright default.
Why would they have to do a stand alone? Tell manchin and cinema were adding it to the reconciliation and if they refuse or tank it were going to default and history, your donors, and the world will blame you both
I guess Mitch knows it’s likely Dems won’t be aggressive and will just fold
Manchin, in particular, isn’t going to get rolled into voting for a $3.5 trillion dollar spending bill in that manner and Dems don’t actually want a default as it effectively kills the existing agenda, they’ll spend the rest of Congress dealing with a recession at best and possibly wildly unpredictable consequences at worst.
I don’t think it is at all a slam dunk manchin and sinema would take the blame. They’d counter with like we support the a clean debt ceiling bill or like $1.2 trillion best offer and at that point, if it failed and Manchin had been threatened like that, he’d be happy to go to everyone that handed him a mic to blame the progressives for tanking the economy.
He’d probably be done, I agree with that, but not sure exactly what prize we win. Not saying not to do it, think all options suck, but don’t think it is an ez game thing.
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The best option is to nuke the filibuster to raise the debt ceiling.
Assume that Manchin will never vote to get rid of the filibuster, then plan accordingly.
Yeah I mean I’m dealing with the Calvinball restraints of Democrats, not like actual best policy.
Left to my own devices I wouldn’t even nuke the filibuster to raise the debt ceiling, id nuke the filibuster to put in a 100 percent surtax on income over $1,000,000 to pay down debt and stay under the debt ceiling until the majority of Republicans voted to raise the debt ceiling. The cowards we rely on don’t have that level of spiteful asshole in them though
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If you think Dems are guaranteed to lose in the midterms on the present course due to gerrymandering and voter repression, a case can be made that inducing chaos provides the best chance of success.