Nope. We often don’t have hard data to help us make decisions, so we have to use other techniques.
ok why not pick a technique other than vibes then
Let’s simplify the problem by taking out the relationship of order of primaries and ultimate nominee. Let’s stipulate that all primary elections take place simultaneously on the same day.
Suppose you are a consultant for the Democratic party. They have asked you to come up with a weighting system for each state to determine who the winner of the primary is. The goal is the maximize the chances of the nominee winning the general election.
How would you determine whether you would use something as a factor in the weighting for the states?
this seems to be begging the question that winning the primary means you’ll be a stronger candidate in the general
you are the one determining who wins the primary. that’s the point.
I’m not convinced running all primaries on the same day is a great idea, it will massively favor big name recognition and early fundraising.
but given that condition I would say “the person with the most votes” should win
I don’t know what this has to do with the original question
honestly I think primaries in general are probably bad actually
seems like fucking with america on oil and war machine production is a bad idea.
Seems like you want a few mid states to go first to get things rolling before you bring out the real playas (GA/Arizona/NV/Michigan). I’d probably just keep it how it has always been for simplicity.
Order the states with respect to percentage gain in votes for the Democratic candidate from 2020 to 2024. The state with the highest percentage gain goes first for the 2028 primary.
bUt wHaT dAtA dO yOu hAvE?
oil at lowest point of the year. biden is going to refill the strategic reserve cheaper than they thought.
Genius Joe
Smart, but full genius would be creating a strategic corn reserve
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Are primaries a clear improvement over the caucuses they replaced?
did they replace caucuses? I’m not sure that caucuses were ever widespread
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Ok but if they did replace caucuses
caucuses seem bad
