Sure it’s possible.
But they are on currently track to lose EVEN if there is no gerrymandering. If they do nothing, it could be worse for them than 2010.
It is going to be a complete bloodbath, but it really doesn’t matter this time. The Biden Presidency is basically already dead, it matters for close elections in '24 - '30, assuming we even have actual elections then.
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It will be much harder to going forward is the point. Dems already need like a five point national edge to win the House or something like that. Gonna be like six or seven going forward. Then layer on the voting laws making it harder for part of the Dem base to actually vote, a judiciary that favors Republicans, and the reluctance of Republican states/a Republican House to certify Dem president electoral votes going forward and it is going to be exceedingly hard for Dems to take power again. My bet is that 2022 will be the last year we see Dems in charge, probably for the working lives of most of us on this forum.
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But what if we added indentured servitude?
Now you’re talking.
It is going to be an out of body experience when Republicans refuse to certify in 2024 and the large majority of Democrats are legitimately stunned.
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Yes. Particularly if Trump runs the potential options for 2024 results are either the Republican wins or massive constitutional crisis/we get to learn how it feels to live through a violent contested election.
The current system is so rotten that we kind of need a constitutional crisis to spur any meaningful reform.
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They won’t need to refuse to certify. They’re going to win.
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The reform in this case will be a massive weaponization of state power against liberals, particularly POC.
I don’t really see much hope in the long run if we stick with the current Constitution.
Honestly that might be the best case scenario. If that happens maybe we can remake democracy. Better a short violent problem with the state on our side than a long slow death imo
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Meh if Biden actually wins and they refuse to certify and there is violence I think the military will mostly be on our side if shit gets crazy.
Then again maybe not when the supreme court rules those states can actually send their own electors.
The state is going to weaponize itself against liberal and POC regardless once conservative get full control.
Just have to look at Tucker to see that. They will continue to make them the enemy and scary evil monster and will have to punish them for red meat for the base
I think this would be a lot more boring that it sounds. There will be violence, but not “civil war level” violence. The magnitude of the conflict is constrained by the lack of people willing to fight for the Dems. The Rs have the army, police, and a few million heavily armed people ready to take up arms. The Dems have literally no one, their only accidental allies are the actual progressives who oppose the fascists and even they don’t like the Dems. The violence around a stolen election will look like 2020 violence - a small number of legitimately heroic protestors will march, and the cops will kill some and Kyle Rittenhouse will kill some and nothing will fundamentally change.
Similarly, @Riverman I don’t think that Democrats are going to be stunned by an epiphany when Republicans refuse to certify, I think they are going to fall back on their fantasy world security blankets. CNN/NYT/WaPo will have a bunch of “Republicans say” articles about how the Constitution defends their right to steal the election, and these will be treated as sincere good faith arguments. Law bros will insist that any Republican misconduct will be corrected in due course by the courts - just wait 5 years and you’ll see! It’s going to play out just like the failure of the entire legal/political system to deal with Donnie Dumb Dumb’s obvious slam dunk no question crimes committed while in office. We’ve seen this show before.
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most recent coups or contested elections end up with dead / arrested in the hundreds and thousands respectively, although it’s a big range. thailand, belarus. in a broader sense, maybe turkey, russia. can probably count jan6 in there as well.
Once they kill a few dozen people it will end with a whimper.
Look what happened in Hong Kong, and they actually had a truly heroic, coordinated opposition.
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I really do not think R has the army. Trump was historically unpopular with them and not just the officers. His approval rating in the military was pretty similar to the general population.
Plus yeah all the top brass hates Trump.
I think mostly the army stays out of it but if shit got real bad if Biden ordered them to intervene I could see that happening.
Problem is the supreme court likely rules that republican states can send their own el actors so their coup would be legal this time.
Meh I think you massively underestimate people who would fight back. If the right pulls some coup shit I think you’d see a lot of the BLM protestors ready to fight back. And Biden would have the executive this time.
Biden would be out there denouncing both sides and calling for peace, with something like “the reasonable Republicans need to figure out their side and take their party back and stop the coup” and then it would be crickets when the Republicans do not, in fact, stop the coup
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They are probably less likely to be on our side ten years from now, so if we had to have a violent confrontation, it might be better to have it sooner rather than later.