Larry Sabato has 268 votes going to Dems and four states (Wisconsin, Arizona, Florida, North Carolina) as toss ups
http://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2020-president/
538 has Wisconsin at D+7.6 and Florida at D+6.8. Not sure how Larry has those as toss ups. As a matter of fact, all four toss ups go Democratic according to 538.
But she has never had the courage to come right out and say that she opposes malarkey.
Surely but I think there is a little concern and tarnish jumping off right now of getting fired right now.
Probably the last best jumping off point was end of last fall.
Also Trump is presiding over the most catastrophic health crisis and economic crisis of the century in the US and his main characterization of his Presidency is āIām being treated unfairlyā. This whole interview with Chris Wallace is fuel for attack ads.
Itās possible youāre forgetting she is a woman.
well SCOTUS would be 4-4 or 4-3. Depends if RBG got fooled into retiring and Rās laughing their asses off not filling that seat either. Rās would have both house/senate right now and obviously she gets impeached at least once. Trump favored in the pres election race.
Might well have gotten the same thing as now just 4 years afterwards.
she and the dems got nothing vs donald trump/Rās in that category though, well, he and his party are more of a snake but you get the point.
How can this dudeās primary model be published before super Tuesday?
Itās mostly who does better in New Hampshire.
Yeah, that guyās model is bullshit. Being right in 24 out of the last 26 elections isnāt that impressive either. Most of our elections arenāt that close, thatās a recent phenomenon.
Carter got stuck the way a lot of leftists do, explaining shit. Reagan figured it out, be on TV a lot and just say yes/no keep it simple. He was really confused when Reagan said something stupid on smog and nobody gave a shit. Nothing ever changes.
as youād expect, a lot of trumpās stuff is just stolen from other people. Do nothing congress was how Truman came back from down in the polls plus a bunch of nixon and some reagan shit. Heās probably really confused how none of it seems to be working and itās purely because he canāt stop being himself for even one minute.
What I see is his hardcore base remaining fairly silent. They will never abandon him but they used to aggressively defend every stupid thing he did. This is no longer happening to any significant degree. Meanwhile he continues to flail crazily.
Pretty clear his grifter instincts carried him pretty far but they are not all season qualified. He has no other gears and this gear has grinded to dust in 2020. Add that to the fact he believes he is always right and doesnāt take on advice, we will not see a substantial pivot from what he has been doing.
The scary part is he could pivot hard and start tackling Covid and make a real dent before the election but his mind wonāt let him do anything required.
itās simple and dumbāwho gets more primary votes vs their competition wins the election model.
so it always gets the incumbent, and they usually win. Kudos to harvard though, if I was trolling thatās something Iād do but heās old so maybe not.
Picture 2 is a rhinoceros? I thought it was a dog with a big ass tumor on its nose.
Trump was the only one on the ballot for a lot of themā¦
Democrats need to frame covid in a way that holds that anything Trump might do to properly tackle the pandemic is some sort of admission that he was wrong. There should be no face-saving path for doing the right thing.
He is a serious textbook case for the Dunning-Kruger Effect.
