I think if it’s anywhere near close the military will want to stay out of it. And I don’t think the GOP is likely to overturn the election unless it’s at least something like Florida 2000. Even if it’s 1% or 2% difference instead of 0.01% difference or whatever it was in Florida, it’s got to be close enough that they can fudge it with a straight face. I hope.
1 Like
Looking through the site it suggests that the candidate will win who had the stronger support during primaries. So it probably comes down to voter turnout again and if the Sanders supporters go allin on Biden this time.
Polls aren’t really prediction models though. It’s just asking people who they’re voting for.
I dunno like I said I think his model is useless when you factor in covid + unemployment + how hated Trump is. His model factors in none of those things and is just incumbent + primary outcomes.
I think you underestimate how much Clinton was hated. I mean yea maybe I’m wrong but I think there would have been a very large GOP turnout in 2018 if Clinton was the president. I mean hell, Trump supporters still bitch about her today. The GOP/Fox machine would have been 24/7 about emails and Benghazi and eating babies in pizza parlor basements.
There is still no chance there would be 67 senate votes to impeach her lol
1 Like
I disagree but ok.
This model is stupid. Basically, it says that incumbents are likely to win, since incumbent presidents rarely face strong primary challengers.
Clinton wasn’t hated enough for Republicans to win the presidential popular vote.
4 Likes
I might not either, but a lot of people would.
4 Likes
Why is he bashing Portland polish people?
I think so too.
I think for the GOP, it will depend on the ferocity of their voters. If Trump loses by any margin and no one cares, they’ll let him go. If legions of Trumpers side with him and storm Congress, though…
I’m not talking about a cadre of dummies. I mean like if we flipped BLM and gave that same passion and volume to Trump supporters. Don’t think that will ever happen, though, since they would also need courage.
From the page you linked to:
This forecast is unconditional and final; hence not subject to any updating. It was first posted March 2, 2020, on Twitter.
That’s before anyone knew the impact of the pandemic.
1 Like
I do think most people in the administration feel like they walk around on eggshells all day every day and at any random point could be fired. I suspect many of them are hoping he loses so they can jettison to a comfy corporate consulting gig.
1 Like
Can’t they just jettison to the comfy corporate gig now?
That is a nonsense poll. It is useful as either or three way polls. Polling total hypothetical scenarios in the future accomplish nothing.
The only take away from that poll is that potential Biden voters are more realistic.
Obviously there is real concern that turnout will be stifled in part due to the virus but that poll is still meaningless.
Obviously SCOTUS would save us!
I understand. He also wrote an opinion piece for the Hill. https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/496078-will-economic-recession-cost-president-trump-the-election
Simply consider the origin of the economic collapse this year. Who or what is to blame? Is it Trump? Some will say yes, but most Americans appear mindful of the coronavirus. They accept the need for public health measures that, unfortunately, have now put the economy in an induced coma. No such rationales were on hand to save Carter, Bush, or Hoover from the electoral retribution at the polls for economic disasters.
The answer is yes. Take Barack Obama in his quest for reelection in 2012. Americans went to the polls that year with notable misgivings about the economy. Just like in 1980, more voters in exit polls said they were worse off. Yet Obama did not suffer the same fate as Carter. Obama might have had more personal appeal, and Mitt Romney was no Reagan. Aside from that, what saved Obama was judgment by the electorate about who was more responsible for the state of the economy. Was it Obama, the sitting president, or Bush, his predecessor? By a good margin, the bigger blame fell on Bush, as the Republican nominee paid the price.
The survival of Obama in the face of such economic adversity is a smaller version of what Roosevelt did in 1936. He won reelection with 15 percent of the workforce unemployed. But did voters blame Roosevelt for such a dismal rate? Of course not. He had inherited it from his predecessor. The lesson is that a sitting president who escapes blame for a poor economy need not despair about losing his job in the election.
Well I just hope you all are right and we dont get a terrible surprise.
Official title, John Bolton, God of War
1 Like
Don’t get it. Hillary is probably a little better than Biden on policy, and clearly more competent / mentally together. Obviously Hillary is less popular, and electorally she’s a liability compared to Biden, but Biden/Hillary is better governance than Biden/Biden’sClone.