Nah. Dude I want you to seriously think about how terrified we all are of a second Trump term. There’s literally no even moderately blue person in the country that doesn’t feel exactly the same way. We’re 60% of the population and a majority of the population in most red states. Trump could lose UT in 2020, and will almost certainly lose TX if the GOP retirements are any kind of indicator.
This thing is going to be a massacre. He ripped off their face mask for the whole world to see. They’ve been dependent on the ‘both sides suck equally’ argument to win elections with their sides steady superior voter turnout for years and years.
The demographic shifts the country is going through are progressing at a pretty good pace. He barely won in 2016 with turnout among key Democratic constituencies down.
Oh and we’re probably going to see a recession with his finger prints all over it before election day.
Public opinion polls aren’t votes and even polls aren’t that bad for him. There will be unprecedented voter suppression in 2020. It will be a coin flip once again.
It’s sounding like Trump got the message that he’s guilty of high crimes and he’s decided on doubling down on the high crimes so went for it today to also maybe drown out what else is coming down the tubes.
Public opinion polls are of ‘likely voters’. A turnout wave would break their entire model. Obviously people who normally don’t vote have to show up for me to be right. I think that happens here.
Yup. And I think that this whole circus plays into Trump’s only skill: manipulating the media and using the media to energize and motivate his supporters. The people who are saying that Trump releasing the transcript right off the bat and now encouraging foreign leaders to investigate the Russia election stuff are huge missteps and now THE WALLS ARE CLOSING IN are the same people who loudly said Trump went too far when he insulted John McCain, yelled at a gold star family, called Mexicans rapists, insulted John McCain, suggested Ted Cruz’s dad killed JFK, bragged about sexually assaulting women on tape, insulted John McCain, etc etc etc. At some point maybe recognize these folks don’t know what they’re talking about and don’t understand how Trump’s support works?
And you know what doesn’t play into Trump’s one strength? Policy discussions. Challenging him on issues that Americans actually care about and he doesn’t have a clue or a plan to improve things: healthcare, the opiod crisis, jobs, trade. But sure let’s make this election about this impeachment nonsense. What could possibly go wrong?
I’ll be happy to admit he’s a lock to win most of the deepest red states. I think he’s literally losing every state that doesn’t usually go 60%+ for the Republican nominee in normal elections. I think they lose a lot of state level stuff in those states though in the slightly bluer counties.
This is going to be really bad for the GOP whether they vote to convict or not. And you’re assuming the scandals don’t get so bad that GOP voters turnout doesn’t suppress somewhat. Think about how badly they’d lose if their turnout was off 10-15% while the Democrats turnout was 50%+ higher. The Dems have enough room to do that. We normally run about 60% voter turnout in this country in presidential election years. The GOP’s base votes at a much higher % than that and the Dems much lower. You reverse that or even equalize it and you get a massacre.
75-80% voter turnout would be apocalyptic for the GOP.
Trump probably sees that they might just focus on the Ukraine call for impeachment so if he keeps racking up new charges he will really muddy the waters and create confusion as to why he is only being charged in that one instance, out smarting the Dems once more.
He’s refusing to get real lawyers to help him plot an actual way out of this burning building. This is what that looks like. He’s never experienced consequences in his life but this time it’s different. He’s done something super obviously over the line that is also super simple. He doesn’t get that the only reason the Mueller report didn’t take him out is that he was prevented from doing shit like this by the adults who were babysitting him at the time.
