Just think through the logic. If GOP Senators let stable get away with it again, maybe they lose 3-6 Senate seats, maybe they lose control of the Senate, this is bad. However, if they convict him or force him out then they will lose like 20 seats, it will totally and utterly devastate the rank and file Republican voters who will never forgive them, this is political oblivion.
Even an impeached but not convicted stable genius is drawing more live than Mike Pounce in the GE. Hopefully this analysis is incorrect, thatâs the only optimism Iâm capable of mustering.
if trump didnât have an american birth certificate, he could release his foreign birth certificate publicly, say over and over that it very strongly proves heâs fully american, and the fox news people would say it proves heâs american and libs are hysterical and are coming for your guns because theyâre being manipulated by international bankers.
republicans in congress will then be inundated with phone calls from their constituents and their donors, 94% of the republican party, saying you gotta stop these international bankers by protecting trump.
Itâs a five-second photoshop of a random picture I found of him walking across a lawn coupled with a carefully selected silhouette against a textured background. I like to make these for fun and was inspired by your post. I appreciate the feedback. It can be hard to capture the full spirit of the moment.
Not inspired by Banksy. I liked the design of this stock image and thought it fit what I hoped to illustrate.
No one is saying Trumpâs base is turning on him. They will never turn on him. The argument is if Trump is worth it to the GOP as a whole. Whether or not thatâs true remains to be seen.
I could not (be bothered to) find the appropriate thread to say so, but the forum software here is really great. I never knew a forum experience could be so easy and intuitive. Thank you to the overlords.
They wonât vote, they wonât show up, the Democrats will win so bigly it will make everyoneâs head spin. I donât remember what the criteria are for passing amendments but they make take home the whole kitty. Citizens United? Bye Bye. Well regulated militia? Bye bye.
Trumpâs base isnât that big if people that donât like him are motivated to vote. Trump has always been at around 40% popularity. Heâs never going to go from 60 million votes in 2016 to 70 million votes in 2020.
Trump can win the 2020 election. He can also lose by 20 million votes if Dems show up.
Oh damn, Iâm much more impressed that so much of that is your own work. I just thought I was missing out on something someone else had made that I hadnât seen before, not something at least quai-original. Even if it doesnât totally reflect my thesis as of tonight, it is perfect for this morning.
A few important things⌠First, we donât know what Trumpâs new approval rating will be. 44% was before this shit really hit the fan. Heâs certainly going back down into the high 30âs, maybe worse.
In terms of the Senate Republicans turning on Trump, this isnât about who wins the presidential election. This is about winning their own re-election. For example, Collins almost has to vote to convict and hope that it makes people forget about her Kavanaugh vote. If she votes for Kavanaugh AND acquits Trump, sheâs 100% toast.
For someone in a deep red state, their biggest threat is a primary challenge. But, then again, if their vote on this drives up Democratic turnout and gets them shellacked among independents, they may have to consider that losing the general is a possibility.
All of this calculus changes if theyâre running for re-election in 2020 versus 2022 versus 2024. When the vote takes place also matters. If theyâre running in 2020, is it too late to get primaried? If this vote is in a week, they have to factor in the primaries. If itâs farther down the line, filing deadlines start to pass in November and December. Three Senate Republicans are out of the woods on a new primary challenger being able to file as of December 21. Three more in January. A ton at the end of March.
In addition, the margin of the vote matters. If the GOP is largely turning on him, then theyâll have cover. Theyâll be able to go back to their base and say they had no choice. As a result, I think there is virtually no chance the vote is 67-33 or even 70-30 or 64-36. If itâs not going to get to 67, itâll be like all Dems (with the possible exception of Manchin), Collins, Gardner, and 2-3 other Republicans voting to convict. If itâs going to get to 67, McConnell will probably try to hold the whole caucus together (or as close as possible) to make it nearly unanimous. So the behind the scenes whip counts may be very close, but the end tally probably wonât be.
Lawrence OâDonnell made a great point. He said you want to have at least 3-4 articles to give the other party a chance to vote with their POTUS on 2-3 of them, and still convict him on one. It gives them more cover with their base. But they should all be related to this. But they could all be related to this same thing⌠For example, Iâm not a constitutional expert or a lawyer but in laymanâs terms maybe one could relate to trying to obstruct, one could relate to an abuse of power, one could relate to colluding with a foreign government and one could relate to violating his oath of office.
Yeah I agree with this. I think the need to tell a coherent and concise story is vital, but itâs also important to list more than a single offense. Listing just one thing makes it far too easy to write off as a single indiscretion. Enumerating multiple offenses encapsulated in the same story is the best strategy.
for inviting me along. 
