Extrapolate all you want to turn it into no meaning, but timing is everything. This is about the worst timing for each of them to decide to retire (in the week after Mueller). It makes it look significant no matter what you say. This is optics. The Roby retirement makes no sense. She won by 60 percent in 2018.
I mean my back of the envelope calculation regarding Trump not winning is that he had razor thin margins in three states, such that if the same voters voted today he would lose, because more of his voters are now dead and the new 18-22 y/os who will be voting (alas, not enough of them) will likely vote dem.
Add that to the additional fact that the dem nominee is likely to be more popular than Hillary and that Trump is no longer an unknown to Trump-curious voters, often not to his advantage, and I see his odds of winning as quite low. There are just damn few ânewâ Trump voters.
So, that gets him to a 5-10% chance of winning, and the other 10% is an add-on in case something freaky happens, like his opponent dying in a plane crash or choking on a McNugget (and even then, heâd probably lose) or some kind of new âComey Surpriseâ. Also, the economy âlooks goodâ for him now, but if the dow drops 10-15% then heâs in deep trouble. Heâs behind already and has to fade a ton of outs.
Man, I love your optimism and hope youâre right, but Iâm getting a strong feeling youâre gonna be the poster with whom I make my traditional âGOP for Presâ reverse jinx bet.
@simplicitus No concerns whatsoever about voter suppression, Russian hacking of voter rolls, or Russian hacking of election systems?
I believe those three add up to give him quite a bit of equity, especially as the GOP refuses to move on election security.
I also think he has at least one ace up his sleeve for next October, whether he realizes it or not is another question all together⌠But if he cuts a deal with China and lifts all the tariffs, the stock market will soar for a week or two and everyone will predict tons of economic growth.
Donât be so negative. Nancy will write a strongly worded letter, the lawyers among us will assure us that the law will save us, nunnehi will have the impeachment whip count updated daily, and Trump is pretty old so youâre looking at three terms, maybe four max.
Iâm guessing youâre meaning that the strongly worded letter will go out to the progressive wing of the party to belittle them for helping DJT win again.
I think there will be some voter suppression, basically in similar forms to 2020. Hell, voting in person and on Tuesday is voter suppression imo. (CA permanent absentee is solid.) I donât think there can be a lot more voter suppression than 2010-2018, other than perhaps swing states with both GOP governor and legislature. Donât think there are many of those, and changes to voting in 2019/20 can often be held up in the courts.
I expect the Russians to do similar things that they did in 2016, mainly disruption, propaganda, and such, which is far less effective than things like Druge and Fox News. I donât think they will actually change any vote totals. The spooks in the NSA monitor Russian activity pretty closely, and changing vote totals is basically an act of war. Putin does not want to piss off the US much more and potentially have to face an angry Liz Warren.
I think he gains some equity from suppression and Russian activity, but not much more than 2016, and thatâs the baseline where he barely eeked out a win.
Also, the NRA spent like $75 mil on Trump in 2016, and this time theyâll probably spend $0. I think the Kochs have also pulled back on spending, and Adelson may be dead by then. Also, GOP fundraising is always taxed by the significant grift component. These folks arenât retiring from Congress because they think 2020 will be a cake walk. Remember, GOP had a pretty substantial House victory in 2016. What are they odds for them to retake the House? Can trump win if Dems win the house, even with a lower majority? That seems unlikely. The GOP got there asses out to vote in 2018, they were just swamped by the wave. There are a lot of passionate anti-Trumpers who will order their friends and family not to vote Trump. That may not be a huge effect, but Trump BARELY won in 2016, and he basically needs to run the table again. Finally, most people surrounding Trump are incompetent grifters. I donât expect him to hit another 2 outer. Heâll probably campaign in like Alabama where he can get adoring crowds.
Not sure thatâs entirely accurate, and it sounds like it might be a misleading comparison. He hasnât been over 43% in 2.54 years, and itâs hard to win with 43%. That said, I could see a scenario vs Warren or Bernie where they are also at 43%, but I think they would have more mojo. Also, a competent campaign and/or events should be able to get him down to 39%
Iâm torn. I fell similar to simplicitus adding on the fact that I think a LOT of people feel for the right wing/russia propaganda that Hillary was as bad as trump and she was a shoe in to win anyways etc so they stayed home and I think 2020 will have a massive, massive turn out which is good for dems obv.
But I also agree that I think Trump and his boys are going to pull some super dirty shit. Itâs been made clear they wonât be held accountable at all so why not try? Even if they get caught nothing will happen.
The boring answer is being in the minority is no fun for legislators and they donât see the House or WH going blue in the near future. But also, between Epstein and Deutchbank and Trumpâs finances getting investigated, you have to wonder if thereâs a bunch of scandals about to break.
Republicans have already been doing that for ages. My big concern is what happens when Trump just refuses to step down.