The bastards really wear you down.
I fully expect Trump to lose in 2020, but I expect his last three months to set a new record for pardons.
For example, he’s gonna not pay any of Giuliani’s bills and claim a pardon makes everything square.
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alright guys you know the drill.
incoming trump rage tweet about “foreign election interference” in 3… 2… 1…
Do you actually think Trump will accept a loss and step down? I don’t see it happening. This is his ultimate fantasy as a power-hungry narcissist. He’s the leader of the wealthiest country in the world, and he’s completely above the law. There’s no way he accepts a loss and voluntarily steps down, imo.
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I have no idea how I’m going handle election night. It’s going to be unbelievably terrifying and stressful.
I used to be super optimistic Trump would lose. But now I’m starting to think he’s a favorite to just straight win the election with all the cheating he’s gonna do. And even if he doesn’t I’m extremely confident he will not step down.
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He’s firmly odds on at Betfair in a liquid market.
If Trump is going to hang on I don’t think it will be after an election gets called with Donnie announcing on twitter that he’s not budging. Even now it will require other people in positions of power cooperating, so I’d guess the route is a few ‘close’ states dragging their heels in counts and then ‘legal’ shenanigans would start. No reason to deviate from a tried and tested method, after all.
Most people here know more about US politics than me so I wouldn’t put too much stock in my opinion, but I know I’ll be spending some time this year trying to mentally ‘price in’ a second Trump term. It seems the more likely outcome, all things considered.
It’s the hope that kills you. For Brexit, Trump and the UK GE in 2017 I watched as normal and they were awful. For the last UK one I ignored it most of the day, and then went to bed just after seeing the exit poll and it was much easier to handle.
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Hope is the only thing helping me get out of bed in the morning.
I mean not really, my life is pretty good all things considered. But just accepting or detaching myself from it isn’t really something I’m able to do. So for now I’m pouring my anxiety into trying to get Bernie the nom and then whoever wins assuming no world class rat fucking into winning the general.
If he wins again I’ll deal with it. Maybe get some xanax for the night of :D.
And if he loses I think he will just straight up start posting about how it was rigged, retweet tons of super conspiracy shit about illegal voters, and release his DOJ on states with close results to declare them void.
I wonder where the big money Republican backers will land in all of this. Will they support it? I think they will determine where the senate Republicans land.
I don’t know a single Trump supporter who wouldn’t eat that shit up happily though.
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Unless it’s a a landslide, SCOTUS will rig it for Trump in a decision that will make Bush v. Gore look like Brown v. Board.
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Yeah, so, I never watch this bullshit (that’s just asking for an Ark Of The Covenant face melting) but I do read/skim them when I get the chance and, uh, this is surreal, even relatively.
This is the State of the Union that Trump probably wanted to give — a slam-poetry session of weeks’ worth of frustration and complaints. “But now we have that gorgeous word,” Trump said. “I never thought that word would ever sound so good. It’s called total acquittal.”
“Total acquittal” is two words, of course, which might give you a sense of how this thing went. The New York Times’ Maggie Haberman reported that the president had a draft of his remarks, but it was quite clear from the moment he began talking that he wasn’t going to stick to any script.
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Woah Woah Woah. It’s racist to say that black people commit more crimes? What about those fbi statisticz tho?
Cosigned.
I mean, I read these shits when transcripts get online and this is only the 2nd or 3rd time I bothered posting, saying, “Holy shit read this if you haven’t.”
The issue here is that poor people commit most of the ‘crimes’ (rich people also commit crime, but it’s different crime and our CJ system demonstrably doesn’t care about it). Minorities are more likely to be poor so hassling them is low hanging fruit for cops.
The fucked up thing about how Bloomberg thinks is that he thinks the way to prevent crime in poor neighborhoods is to have cops hassle the shit out of the people who live there. And he also thinks that the way to make a neighborhood not poor anymore is to gentrify the shit out of it and force all the poors out. Where those poor people go is decidedly not his problem, and these sort of policies are simply trying to push poverty and poverty related problems out of your territory and make them into someone else’s problem.
Really gross. What we actually need to do is spend an ungodly amount of money on education and direct cash transfers to make the poor people not poor anymore. Within 20 years of this we’ll see society pretty radically transformed wrt things like teen pregnancy, crime, and homelessness. Also worker productivity will shoot up dramatically and very likely create enough tax revenue for these programs to have paid for themselves.
Interestingly I don’t actually think that poverty is a problem that can be fixed at a local level, because there is more demand for good quality anti poverty services than any city, even an NYC/LA/SF type city, has the resources to provide. Poverty is a national problem, which means that if you build more homeless beds locally they will instantly be filled by indigent people from other cities/regions for instance. If you create high quality schools in affordable income areas middle class people will instantly buy up that housing and begin the process of gentrification and raising the prices out of reach of the working poor. If you create mental healthcare services you get snap swamped by desperate people from all over the country who need help…
Only the federal government has the resources to fix poverty. It has to be a national program of vast size and scale so that the demand can actually be fully met. Until we do that cities best move (for themselves ldo) is to do exactly what Bloomberg and NYC did… which is push the problem cases out of their borders and make them into someone else’s problem. Poverty in the USA is a tragedy of the commons situation if I’ve ever seen one that absolutely demands a national solution.
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Wait he just deleted that tweet?
From wikipedia:
According to the US Department of Justice, African Americans accounted for 52.5% of all homicide offenders from 1980 to 2008, with Whites 45.3% and “Other” 2.2%. The offending rate for African Americans was almost 8 times higher than Whites, and the victim rate 6 times higher. Most homicides were intraracial, with 84% of White victims killed by Whites, and 93% of African American victims were killed by African Americans.[49][50][51]
Basically people kill people they know. Also poor people murder people a lot more than rich people… so I’m going to go out on a limb here and strongly suspect that if you break these stats out by income group instead of race poor whites/blacks/hispanics start to look very very similar.
When racist white people grab the paragraph I just posted they 1000% of the time act like being black is the reason why black people have a relatively high murder rate instead of the fact that being poor and black is literally the bottom rung of American society… and that black people are dramatically more likely to be desperately poor than whites. Victim blaming at its finest.
From the same wikipedia article that I didn’t bother to read earlier:
While there is a correlation between blacks and Hispanics and crime, the data imply a much stronger tie between poverty and crime than crime and any racial group, when gender is taken into consideration.[73] The direct correlation between crime and class, when factoring for race alone, is relatively weak. When gender, and familial history are factored, class correlates more strongly with crime than race or ethnicity.[75][76] Studies indicate that areas with low socioeconomic status may have the greatest correlation of crime with young and adult males, regardless of racial composition, though its effect on females is negligible.[75][76] A 1996 study looking at data from Columbus, Ohio found that differences in disadvantage in city neighborhoods explained the vast majority of the difference in crime rates between blacks and whites,[77] and two 2003 studies looking at violent offending among juveniles reached similar conclusions.[78][79]
So yeah. Being poor makes you dramatically more likely to do something desperate and stupid. I can say that my own personal experiences as a poor teenager strongly support this. I’m almost 100% certain that my own behavior from 14-20 was SIGNIFICANTLY more criminal than almost anyone else on this board who doesn’t come from a similar background. Maybe one of you did more stuff that could get you sent to prison. Maybe. I’d actually be surprised lol. I ran good and didn’t get into major trouble, which is pretty much the core of white privilege for poor people. I’d probably be in prison if I was black.
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