what probablilites do you assign to each scenario? not trump winning etc but various election night scenarios/ensuing trump moves
also can we just combine the two threads now? I feel like that would be fine. Have the bot in there, its all the same info and/or relevant
and then when trump loses we close the thread forever and start a biden one.
Based on 2016 numbers, change in demographics, 2018, expanded absentee voting, low approval rating, locked in numbers for race going back two years, more Covid in the next 40 days, and upcoming debates, I think there’s around 75% that biden has a clear win, 5% Trump has a clear win, and 20% shenanigans, which could break either way.
really hard for me and i think most here to think Biden will have clear wins on election night with anywhere near that probability.
I really hate agreeing with Simp but that’s about where I’m at, except that I think the 20% shenanigans breaks for Trump almost always
That 20% is Trump 19.99% and Biden 0.01%.
This is the greatest video clip of all time. Hands down.
I think he fucks it up more than 50% of the time. He’s fucked up way more than 50% of the stuff he’s tried to do since becoming president.
The Rs who actually know the mechanics will get it done. Even if they don’t particularly care about Trump, they will want the downballot power that are reliant on the same ballots.
Who are you talking about? Everybody competent left over a year ago. Jared is probably going to be the qb.
This thread is for everything relating to the Trump presidency/administration/news/horror. The POTUSbowl thread is for everything relating to the election/race/polling. Pretty clear distinction I think there is a benefit to having the two separated.
As we approach election day the horror of the Trump administration and the upcoming election are converging to a significant extent. That said, things like polls are fairly distinct.
Um, R US Senators and state legislators as blatantly obvious examples. There are several R Senators up for re-election in swing states whose fates are highly correlated with Trump. And the same state legislators that Trump is asking to contest the results will be on the ballots themselves.
Rs have a long history of this stuff, Trump is just coming in, spitballing ideas outside the box, and pushing the boundaries of if its “legal”** then do it.
** As determined by conservative justices whose attitutde towards things like denying access to voting and gerrymandering can be best described as “don’t hate the player, hate the game.”
Coming back to this, our leadership just sent an email out to the entire practice that basically boils down to “lol, no, we’re gonna keep doing these things”
