Another thing to consider with regard to polling. I’ve voted by mail in CA for a decade. Most of the time I set the ballot aside and eventually fill it in within a day or two of the election. For the 2020 primary, I filled it out day of and dropped it off at the local polling place.
In a few weeks or whatever, when I get my ballot, I will receive it like Steve Martin getting the phone book in The Jerk. I will fill it out that day and either mail it or drop it off. If I’m not some rare freak this will affect the results vs standard voter models.
He’s one of the most accurate commentators in the media about law. I think he’s sometimes too much of a squish, but he goes one or two levels deeper than almost any commentator the general public is likely to come across, particularly about the “real world” of law. He’s a 9/10 imo, at worst a high 8.
Yeah that’s a no from me dog. His detached arrogance on that podcast with Josh Barro is infuriating. We get it bro, the Federal criminal justice system isn’t great for defendants, which is why you make so much fucking money defending them, maybe leave that take on the cutting room floor when the defendant in question is a fascist wannabe authoritarian god damn President (who is winning by shitting on the supposedly so tough Federal prosecutors)?
If you didn’t read the Popehat comments, they are guessing that if the DoJ is successful in arguing the statements were within his official capacity, Trump is immune from the defamation suit under the Tort Claims Act.
Also it’s not “deep” to say “this is the type of maneuver that almost always fails but Trump is president so who knows,” which is like 90% of his supposed “insight.”
Why not? Big turnout, the trend in your post, Issa is a carpetbagger gives one hope. Or are you saying that Issa not being a crook will be acceptable enough for that district?
Non-zero chance they’ll eventually argue that there was a quid and pro, but a quo was impossible because they never had any intention of actually pardoning him.
Issa doesn’t live here, and people hate that. A lot of people who voted for Hunter last time did it because they felt like he and his family at least cared about the district, lived here, and occasionally would actually talk to them. It was a familiarity thing. People out here are surprisingly savvy to Issa’s grift.
Ammar has been out there doing meet and greets and charity work and interviews nearly every damned day since 2018, and even more since the primary ended. Issa…hasn’t. For example, right now, Ammar has opened a hotline for anyone needing help evacuating from the Valley Fire…and he’s been volunteering at the evacuation centers and humane society. Issa…well, I’m not sure he’s left his house.
This district is trending the same way every other suburban/exurban district in the state has trended, we were just so much further behind to start with. Here’s something interesting from 2019 that may even be more relevant now:
Will it happen this time? Who knows. But it’s not going to be a 30 point blowout, and I don’t think it ever will be again. The margin will be within 5% again this time whichever way it goes, and you can mark that down as my official prediction. There’s a reason the DCCC just added this race to their Red to Blue program.
Duncan Hunter was like the dream, nut low, incumbent opponent for a D to run against. If Campa-Najjar can’t beat that guy, then he’s not winning against Issa.
I’m hoping that I’ve got some sort of Riverman like powers w.r.t. above, but I’m not holding my breath.
