I only know Koy from Chelsea Lately. I thought he was marginally funny. Didn’t he also just produce and star in some semi-autobiographical comedy trash about his loud, Asian relatives?
golden globes must have added laugh tracks in the director’s booth because every video i’ve seen, i don’t see one person laughing. and he starts explaining why he’s bombing so early, it must have been dead quiet in there lol
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With tonight being the final chance, and Succession being odds on for almost everything, will BCS go down as the best show to never win an emmy? Is there any others that come to mind that can top it?
The Wire is the winner of that category I’d say
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Holy shit, it was only nominated for 2 writing awards? That’s absurd and I’m not even a huge fan.
The nomination is the win. The rest is political at least 80 percent of the time. Sometimes it’s impossible for the Academy to get it wrong. Sometimes it’s impossible for the Academy to get it right. But at least it’s not like The Golden Globes.
Beginning to look like a lot of the major Oscars are moving into locks
Best Pic-Oppenheimer
Best Director-Nolan
Best Actor-Cillian Murphy
Best Supporting Actor-RDJ
Best Supporting Actress-Da’Vine Joy Randolph
A chance Cillian loses, but seems unlikely. Rest are looking like solid locks. That leaves Emma Stone and Lily Gladstone as a close race.
Also fun fact, Billie Eilish looks to become a 2x Oscar winner.
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Yep. I don’t have any major arguments with where these seem to be most likely headed even though a sweep by any movie gets dull at a certain point.
I don’t entirely get why RDJ in Oppenheimer is quite so strong; he’s good certainly, but it also feels like a role that many actors could pull off effectively. Guess it’s more of the career achievement stuff that Academy voters fixate on. I’d sooner see De Niro win, but Downey winning is fine. Watching the Golden Globes live was a reminder that the presenter announcing the winner as “Robert D–” does not actually necessarily mean that De Niro in this context. Definitely had a reaction of “oh shit, De Niro won! Oh. Oh yeah.” I’ll be better prepared for the Oscars. Related: I did enjoy the tweet I saw once of a person saying, “Strauss is the most relatable character in Oppenheimer, because who among us hasn’t spent years obsessing about a social interaction that the other person has no memory of?”
My greatest investment at this point is just wanting Past Lives to get into the Best Picture field. I realize it won’t be in the mix for the win at all, but just getting into the field will cause a much larger number of people to see it.
Congrats The Bear. Maybe my favorite show of the year.
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Past lives is my favourite film of the year but I think it’s not likely to make the best picture list. 
I think it’s more likely than not. Out of 10 spots, you’re looking at probably something like:
Locks/Near-Locks
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Barbie
Poor Things
The Holdovers
American Fiction
Very Strong Chance, Nominally Weaker than “Near-Lock”
Anatomy of a Fall
Remaining Hopefuls
Maestro
Past Lives
Zone of Interest
May December
The Color Purple
Across the Spiderverse (easily the longest shot, but I won’t leave it out altogether)
Maestro is probably getting one of the remaining three spots even though it’s the weakest of these that I’ve seen (Zone of Interest being the only one I’m still waiting to see). I think that, at worst, Past Lives is sitting 9th in the rankings just in terms of strength to be nominated, and may be a bit higher.
So I disagree. I think it’s within the danger zone to be snubbed, but I don’t think it’s more likely than not that it will be.
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I really hope I’m wrong and you are right. I think your categories make sense to me too.
Yeah I agree on RDJ. I thought he was fine in Oppenheimer but not exactly Oscar worthy. It definitely feels like a career achievement award. But looks like he is a -1000 favorite right now. I would probably give it to De Niro as well.
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Crazy thing is that was for season one. Season two is even better and will be for next Emmy’s.
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