donald is best at a 4-3 3 tech, it’s easy to see why a 3-4 team would’ve ignored him (even though that was stupid), he’s not a hold the edge 3-4 end in the run game
mack dominated too in college (even vs Ohio State), it’s not like there weren’t other strong players in that draft. Like 8 guys in that draft would be the slam dunk #1 in this one.
I’ll defend it somewhat by saying that it’s a position that starts closest to the ball on defense and has the shortest path to the QB. They have to hold the middle ground and force run plays around them, and if they can generate pressure up the middle that will wreck a QBs day (see: Joe Burrow in the SB). There’s just so few people who can do what Donald does, but an elite DT who can defend both the run and pass will have a bigger impact on the game than most other positions. The only close ones I can think of in my lifetime are Warren Sapp and Ndamukong Suh, and Donald is another level above both those guys.
win rates aren’t that good to be anywhere near #1 overall, sigh this is a film room thing and see what he was asked to do vs what he can do
but this is a bit of a swing for the fences pick if so based on his stats, draft might deliver
The attempts I’ve seen to assign value to NFL positions have predominantly had DI as the least valuable defensive position in terms of wins added. PFF might be the only place (?) that consistently publishes updated WAR estimates, but I recall reading academic papers where the results weren’t too different in terms of conclusions about relative values of positions. Now, it could be that Donald is just so much better than the #2 that it creates an inflection point due to scarcity, but I think it’s much tougher to justify that the position itself is the most valuable:
Since 2006, the average interior defensive lineman who plays 400 or more snaps in a single season has generated 0.06 WAR. And that’s because it’s a significantly less valuable position than cornerback, safety and even off-ball linebacker.
My point isn’t that PFF or any other single model is the gospel about positional value, it’s that I’ve seen enough model results to believe that they’re probably reasonably close to the truth. It would require considerable evidence for me to think they have it exactly backward from reality, and aorn I don’t have that evidence. From that perspective, I think passing on Donald with the earliest picks makes way more sense. It’s not like you’re ever going to project someone to be a five standard deviation player, but even if you’re modeling the entire distribution of outcomes, taking a 5 sd upside Donald over a 2.5 sd upside QB would be an epic mistake, for example, if you thought the odds of those are the same.
so I went and looked at a bit of walker film and first impression was a more athletic Glenn Dorsey, not great. The pass rushing film on him is rough. I don’t get the youtube comments talking about how great he is, based on what exactly. Well it’s not as absurd as Fowler I guess, just betting on him getting there somehow eventually.
Lol I ran out in the street cheering when Dorsey fell to us at #5. Ha ha stupid Raiders taking Darren McFadden.
Somehow that draft still ended up being the Chiefs’ best ever (Jamaal Charles, Brandon Flowers, Brandon Carr, Branden Albert) - even while whiffing on the #5 overall pick. Not a complete bust, but an average DT at best.
One average starter, 3 + starters, and one borderline HOF player is a pretty good draft. Of course that was back when we lost most of our good players because they hated Carl Peterson. Might have been nice to keep the Brando(e)ns around for more than their rookie deals.
Make it happen bro!
the travon walker stans on twitter are hilarious “look at this pass defense defensive ends don’t do this”
his highlights are that play he blew up the puller vs michigan, a pass defense, that time he ran down a running back 35 yards down the field. Like uh, where’s a pass rushing sack. Look I get it, “he’s an athletic freak who I’m betting on panning out” fine whatever. (someone pointed out JJ Watt wasn’t a beast in college either (but watt still had a little better stats), but uh, when you’re pointing at outliers, hey you might be right but damn this is the worst film on a #1 pick since jarmarcus)
also if you told jj watt he had to wrestle a bear to make the team he probably would, these are things we don’t know about players coming out if they’re a ben simmons or anthony bennett type of guy or that.
so far on my nfl draft props
taking teams to take longer shots on “first” especially at rams/dolphins who could take who the hell knows at pick 100. packers OL first pick, stuff like this (after line shopping)
malik willis -190 first QB off the board, risky cause he’s black but josh allen is going to make all the toolsy guys get picked ahead now for awhile
under 2.5 QB’s in round 1. Man this is a #YOLO draft but many teams stick to their boards/grades and I’m gonna guess fewer are actually that high vs the mocks
Kenny Pickett O 16.5 on bovada (possible sure but haven’t seen any real steam for him out there)
Baltimore takes a defensive back +350 on draftkings, it’s either DL or Secondary like for at least two of the first three picks in that division
Bills take a safety with their first pick +950 on bovada, their safeties are 31 and paid and the age they start going to shit
Hutchinson +300 first pick on fanduel, you can get walker -225 if you want elsewhere so there’s some arb here somehow but I’m sure limits are so low not to bother
Olave first WR +2000 bovada, don’t get why wilson is so far ahead of him, olave is the more polished guy and they’re not much different, stat sheet or the combine numbers, what am I missing
also U16.5
Too many teams need QBs to resist going for one in the first. We’ve seen plenty of QBs considered day 2 talent go way earlier due to need.
Malik’s a solid bet to go 2nd overall. I’m sure long time Lions fan are gonna think Andre Ware but Lions execs are probably thinking Lamar Jackson.
right, but they needed quarterbacks in 2013 and geno went from top 5 lock pick first one off the board in the mock drafts (at least early on)
to the middle of the 2nd round and just ej manuel in round 1
while teams do reach, a lot do stick to their grades
ryan nassib was mocked routinely in the top 10 right before the draft lmao
I like Malik. I think people are selling him shirt regarding his floor. I think at worst you get like Cam Newton level production.
also buying the Jermaine Johnson top 10 rumor
I don’t know if he’s any good or not but buying the rumor
not buying the Neal smoke, who keeps doing this shit
at worst you get a NFL MVP is quite the take
That was a fluke season and you know it. Cam had one legit top 5 QB season and it was on one of the more complete teams in recent memory that went 15-1. I stand by the comparison. Strong armed athletic QB whose main knocks are accuracy and ability to run a complex multi-read NFL offense. Some QBs overcome that (Mahomes, Allen), others have some good years and some headscratchers (Newton, Jackson). The other knock on Malik is he’s a bit smaller. But from what I hear he’s a natural leader with a good work ethic. I don’t think he’s going to be a total bust like some recent top 10 picks. You’ll get some quality starts out of him. Whether or not he’s a long term “good” QB is more uncertain.
stingley now getting some steam for 3rd pick
I hate not knowing which of these are true and which are bs
As long as the G-Men come up with best available offensive lineman and best available defensive player at their picks is good for me.
Though to be honest, I wouldn’t hate picking Willis or Pickett. Giants haven’t exercised Jones’s fifth year option yet. I could see them considering either if they’re around. Beats the hell out of Daniel Jones or getting some retread for 20M+ per year.
fwiw, baalke took aldrunk over watt before in a similar situation
of course that could just mean he wants to do the opposite now
