The NFL Thread 2: 1. T Swift

Lamar Jackson getting a feel for what his next contract will be now

Yeah if they want to keep him they will probably have to restructure those years to spread out the cap hit.

There’s definitely a lot of salary cap games going on and I get the narrative that the salary cap is all fake, but every guaranteed dollar in every contract will hit your teams cap at some point.

A really smart kicks the can down the road and resigns before it gets ugly.

Yeah if the cap is going to go up 20% per year (as some experts were predicting) then it is really mismanagement to not be doing these tricks to push cap hits for today’s players into the future

I haven’t seen anyone predicting 20% per year. Is that a thing? There are only three years ever where it increased by more than 10% and one of those was the covid rebound. The other two weren’t recent.

Yeah that must have been a projection I saw before the tv deal was public be cause it looks more like 10% growth now when I look. Regardless it still makes a lot of sense to push cap hits as far as possible into the future where they’re a smaller percentage of the cap

https://twitter.com/SalSports/status/1648338026152570880?s=20

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I get it but man it’s gonna be awkward watching him

Yeah every time he tackles someone you want to flinch until he gets up. Plus it is weird for people on the other team blocking him. Nobody wants to block him to death.

Apparently he literally was in wrong place at wrong time. We shall see if he can get insured.

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nfl media I get it it’s the offseason it’s a lull period before the draft but man allen robinson gets traded for a swap of 7ths and who has 700 yards combined the last two seasons and everyone’s gotta pretend THE RAMS GOT FLEECED.

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The rams are just tanking and dumping cap space at this point, right?

I don’t think they are tanking, but they are in cap hell and rather than roll over in hopes of keeping together a mediocre roster, they are pairing some high priced players.

If Stafford and Kupp are healthy, I think they can still be fringe playoff contender.

Paying $10.9m of his $15.9m salary I read too which is pretty wacky

https://twitter.com/Bengals/status/1648653977775480832?s=20

https://twitter.com/Bengals/status/1648698621343199235?s=20

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Rams only have 45 players under contract, they need 90 for training camp. They seem to be screwing around.

If all salaries are scheduled to grow by 10% and the cap grows by 10% then it’s not a problem. You can’t push more than the cap increase % though without making a cut somewhere else, otherwise the money doesn’t add up. The other problem is that sustained and consistent growth isn’t guaranteed. Maybe it’s 10%, maybe even 15%-20%, but also maybe it’s unexpectedly 5% or flat. There are good reasons to believe we could see flatter numbers going forward based on demographics and cracks in sports media we’re seeing like the collapse of Diamond / Bally Sports, who are now in court for failing to make contractual payments to MLB teams.

That’s why I think it’s laughable that people are saying the teams doing this stuff are geniuses. It’s not like the other teams don’t understand it but rather don’t want to juggle torches. No one is actually evading the cap: eventually every single dollar of guaranteed money will count against the cap. They are basically doing a salary cap Martingale of overpay → backload → restructure which is guaranteed to eventually blow up. Also, none of this is really in the spirit of a salary cap, especially these void years they’re doing now. It also allows current GMs to play fast and loose and offload the disaster cleanup on the next guy.

All valid but so what? Teams know this. The Rams spent like 5 years being hyper aggressive in free agency and sold off all their draft picks to build a team that could win a SB. They did and now they’re paying for it. It blows up, you spend a year or two in cap hell then another year or two rebuilding. Rinse and repeat. High risk/ high reward.

Sure - but a dollar of cap space today is worth more than a dollar of cap space next year - that is even more so if the cap goes up as this years dollar is a higher percent of the cap.

Obviously you can’t do it forever, but teams that are cheap and never borrow from future years are idiots.

You also likely save in terms of total cap spent from front loading contracts but pushing out cap hits. Players want cash now so I’d bet they favor the contracts with huge signing bonuses over ones that spread the cap hit more evenly with regular salary.

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