Rodgers is a 1 or 2 year rental at best, and at least with the #1 overall pick you get your QB on a rookie deal for 5 years instead of having to pay 50mil/year guaranteed to a guy who IMO is not worth that much.
So I donât think a team like the Steelers or Patriots who can consistently win 8-9 games should tank for a QB, theyâre better off trying to get a free agent or a guy whoâs available later (which both teams did). But for a team like the Panthers making a drastic play for a QB is probably the right move. The Panthers tried the Free Agent thing last year, they werenât winning with those guys.
With Lamar Jackson you have to give up the draft capital and pay him 50 million per year guaranteed for many years and risk being completely fucked from both cap and draft pick perspective if he gets hurt. With Bryce Young or Stroud you get him on a rookie contract and can build a team around him with free agents using the cash you save since you donât have the draft picks.
With Aaron Rodgers, if you have anything other than a great year heâs going to contemplate retirement every offseason leaving you in a different kind of purgatory where you canât commit long term to a different QB in case he unretires in training camp like Favre or Brady.
I agree. You have to keep trying to get a qb. Look at SF, they have tried over and over and over.
The problem is there are less qbs in tier 2 and 3 than teams who want them, so their salaries get pushed up to t1 levels by competition.
Yeah and it always surprises me. Those teams rarely ever win much. I would expect more teams to take their chances with a 5 million dollar journeyman and hope he overperforms his deal rather and use the savings to beef up the rest of the roster.
The alternative doesnât work well either though. Whenâs the last time a team with a cheap journeyman had a successful playoff run? Only example I can think of is Nick Foles - but they had Wentz for the regular season and not sure if a full season of Foles gets you to the playoffs (it hasnât since).
Itâs pretty rare cheap journeymen even make the playoffs. You have Geno last year, but canât think of any other recent examples (I donât count Weincke in 20201 since they were 7-9).
Really it seems your options to have real shot at SB is either (1) top-5 QB (and even that might be too many) or (2) top-15 QB on rookie deal. Other than that youâre screwed, so question is do you want to overpay for a tier-2/3 guy to have legit shot at playoffs and slim shot at deep playoff run, or punt and try to get lucky in draft.
Signing a mediocre guy for cheap just seems a good way to win 4-7 games and get a good, but not great pick.
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Matty Ice and Jimmy G both got damn close without either being top 5 or on rookie deals. Stafford got there. I have no idea how to classify Tom Brady on the Bucs, whoâs both old and Tom Brady. Not saying that a mid tier QB on a non-rookie contract is a plan thatâs better than a QB on a rookie deal or having a sure-fire first ballot hall of famer at QB, but youâre not dead in the water with out one of those things, either.
Regardless of the whole âwhich team is capable of winning a championshipâ discussion, Carolina was basically none of those. I guess they could have made a run at out paying the saints for Carr but the rest of their roster isnât going to carry a guy of his caliber to a Super Bowl run.
If whichever guy they take is bad it will be criticized, for the trade, for the pick itself, and for not surrounding whoever it is with enough weapons by trading CMAC and Moore. That doesnât mean itâs not right to gamble on a rebuild around a guy like Young or Stround.
I think a lot of trades are win / lose or even lose /lose but this one will probably end up win / win
I donât think I really disagree with you - although Matt Ryan was the MVP the year he got there. He also led the league in most âadvancedâ stats - QBR, ANY/A, AV. PFF had him as the #2 QB for that year. That seems solidly in the top-5.
You are right about Jimmy G and Stafford (although I think Stafford was probably close to top-5) - but that was the point I was trying to make. They are the type of mid-tier guys you can pay good money for and hope to have a solid playoff run with. Youâre not going to be a consistent SB contender, but youâve still got an outside shot.
Perhaps I shouldnât have said youâre screwed - but that youâre in a tough spot as youâre behind all the teams with elite QBs/cheap young good players and need everything to go right.
Iâve been advocating that teams should pay for the tier 2/3 guys if they think they have a solid core, rather than constantly punt for the draft (and especially better than just going cheap and hoping to get lucky with a bargain basement guy). I think the Carr signing was good and that more teams should be going after Jackson. Sure, youâll probably never make a SB, but thatâs also true if you punt and go the young QB route - most of those fail too. At least with a tier 2/3 guy you should be competitive most seasons.
Itâs hard to judge recent QBs by playoff success because Brady is such an outlier in a small sample that it distorts all the other data.
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If you have an Aaron Donald, prime Von Miller, or maybe a healthy JJ or TJ Watt then you can probably take a QB in the 5-10 range to a championships run. A guy like Revis or Ray Lewis probably counts too back in their day.
Top 5 defensive player plus top 10 QB is sometimes good enough
Looks like my memory of Matty Iceâs super bowl year was off. Thatâs, at the very least, a great season.
Revis Christ
He almost took Mark Sanchez to a superbowl appearance.
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Anyone know why Tyreek Hill is racing a bunch of scrubs?
Didnât need the Onion banner.
Rodgers âreflectsâ
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Brett Favre somewhere playing Catâs in the Cradle
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