lol not even on the field
Yo, fuck the 'Skins.
Does that parlay need the skins to win outright? lulskins
Gruden fired after week 5 crushing loss to the pats
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yes
thereās no chance they cover either, though lol
+5
Whoops. 19 outta 20 aināt bad
Jon Gruden should be happy he is not the worst nfl head coach in his family.
With the contract Gruden got out of that moron heād be laughing all the way to the bank if he got fired.
Did he hedge?
I crunched my lines last night, but I wonāt be putting blind faith in them anymore. The past two weeks suggest my model is lacking for the purpose of betting. The late steam hasnāt been agreeing with my model like it was the first week.
However, the model does seem accurate enough to serve as a guide. It can inform me when a weird-looking market line actually isnāt weird at all. When it disagrees with the market, rather than immediately fire away, from now on Iāll compare it to what my gut says the line should be. My gut alone is probably worse than the model, but maybe gut+model > either alone. Perhaps each one can sanity-check the other. There is also line-movement info at my disposal if I donāt bet at the earliest possible moment.
Long-term, it will be interesting to see if there are patterns to the games my model gets wrong. It gets a lot of lines right, so the problem may not be systemic; maybe the lines it gets wrong all have situational factors Iām missing. (Who knows, maybe ābad coach playing a nationally televised night gameā is one of them, a generalization of Nonfictionās āSkins on MNFā angle.)
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Not sure, was just randomly shared w/ me
Per ESPN Dallas is -2.5 while their FPI gives New Orleans a 55% chance of winning? Free money or tarp?
New Orleans super talented roster, good coaching but the question mark is qb. Although they might have one of the better potential back ups in the league.
Saints defense needs to be able to deal with Dallas play action if they want to win. Both teams will be up for the game. I am a cowboys homer but I wouldnāt bet on this game either way. When projecting out the season I always had it as a potential loss.
Two great offensive teams but itās going to decided by which defense can do enough to slow down the other.
Game is in NO fwiw
NYG(eli), @wash, MIA doesnāt feel like a good test of their ability
Edit: as opposed to W v Houston, L @rams, W @Sea
LOL Ramsey called out sick on Monday, said his back hurt this morning and then took a leave of absence this afternoon for the birth of his child. Jaguars have no idea when heāll be back.
If I was forced to bet I might take no.
Same but it looks like thatās exactly what they want us to do
Refs, take heed
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Call PI one more gd time!
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