This would seem to say you have reason to be worried
Since 1993, only seven NFL games have closed with a point spread of 20 points or higher and those teams are 7-0 straight up, but just 1-6 against the spread.
so you have Tampa as significantly less of a favorite than the odds-makers?
Yeah, according to my spreadsheet, there isnāt much of a difference in value between Manning (in present form) and Jones. Furthermore, my algorithm said the line should be almost +4, but then I made an adjustment for the fact that the Giants are 0-2 and might try extra hard not to let their season slip away by falling to 0-3. How big to make such adjustments is the hard part and Iām sure by next year my method will have changed a lot. But now that the market line is +6.5 itās a bet even without said adjustment.
In some of my Week 4 lines I factored in the possibility of a team being 0-3. But come Week 5 Iāll no longer consider āowenā a factor.
In general, finding disagreements with the oddsmakers is what itās all about. Those are the games I consider betting if the disagreement is bigger than the vig. Ofc thereās always a strong possibility that they know something I donāt, and as the season goes on that will become an even likelier explanation (though I expect there to be fewer/smaller disagreements too). The smart money is what will let me know which one of us was wrong. Generally if the late pre-game line movement is toward my line, thatās a good sign, otherwise chances are my line is the one thatās off. Iāll be evaluating my modelās performance based on Bookmakerās closing lines (which I hear is sharper than Pinnacle these days) more-so than on my actual ATS results.
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Fitztragic benched for Rosen in Miami, Iām sure that will matter A lot
Also claimed Taco Charlton off waivers from the Cowboys so we have a reason to watch now! Taco sacks Dak 5 times in revenge matchup!
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I assume you meant Car +2.5?
Also, unless Iām blind I think you missed LAR @ CLE
Thanks for this tho, looks pretty accurate besides CAR and the skins game (currently +4)
Also I would be all over skins +4 if it wasnāt MNF. The skins are unbelievably bad on MNF, pretty sure they have been cursed since Snyder bought them. Gruden has been particularly awful.
Edit: was curious so ran some queries on PFR; not sure if their spread data is 100% accurate, but none of these games are really close enough to matter:
MNF under Gruden:
Now granted they were only a favorite in 2 of these games but they are 1-8 ATS.
Tacoās journey has been good fodder around here. He was untradable And a huge stain on the front office as being a huge miss on a first round pick. Plus he has been pretty petulant lately. Kind of funny he ends up on Miami.
Wonder if the dolphins will use their winless record to claim every waiver player lol.
u guys ready for some thursday night action??!!
Buck on the call!
yes. not a bad start.
I bet that the game would have 0 or 1 turnovers, tho
at like +480ish.
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lol so Ive got that going for me
the jackass return guy let that ball bounce several times before trying to handle it
Saving their season tonight. Ramsey should stay put
I canāt tell if that is Minshew or Mac from Always Sunny in Philadelphia.
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No I meant minus, which was actually the marketās exact line until today. I donāt really know what changed in the marketās eyes. Maybe yesterday they only made a half-adjustment until it became more certain that Cam would be out.
Whoops yes. I have it Rams -2.5(-108). I think there is some value in taking Cle+3(100) or equivalently, +3.5(-120).
Regarding Wash, I think the truth is probably somewhere in the middle. I do think Was+4 (or Was+5 if placed a week ago) is a great bet and I expect the sharp lines to drop to +3 or less by Mondayās kickoff. It has already moved to 3.5.
I donāt take stats like that very seriously. Some sportsbooks send you free magazines packed with multiple angles like that for each team. There are problems with such angles: lack of a cause-effect explanation, small sample size and/or drawing conclusions about todayās team from ancient games. For instance the 2014 Redskins probably had a much different roster than the 2019 Redskins, so what possible relevance could games from 2014 have? The teams have little in common besides sharing the same name and both sucking. (Without checking the archive I can safely guess that the [insert year] Redskins sucked lol.) In short, maybe thereās a good reason for the line being +3.5, but I doubt itās that the Skins MNF angle was part of the sharpsā / oddsmakersā calculation.
Ofc after this post the skins will lose 27-10 but so be it lol.
Yeah, a lot of angles seem like random coincidence. The Skins sucking for the last 10 years is a better explanation.
2014 redskins have the same coach 
my zero or 1 turnover bet is still live!
Nh
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amazing lol considering that 1 turnover so early. I didnāt even know they had that type prop till I perused pregame
zero or 1 was +480
2 or 3 was +115