Sounds to me like they are either incompetent or corrupt, which is just proof that the DOJ can’t be trusted to investigate anyone, nor can anyone who ever worked at DOJ. As a result, Donald Trump didn’t do any of the stuff they said he might have done, chessmate libtard, three terms now cause you messed with one of them. Wanna go for four terms?
Win PA, MI, WI governor’s races to keep the veto over state legislature-driven voter suppression. All three are up this year.
PredictIt currently has us at roughly 30%, 40%, and 50% across the three. They’re strongly correlated, so if we bink the 30% there’s a pretty good chance we get all three. So call it a 25% chance of sweeping.
If we do that, we hold off further infringements on voting rights in those states and now we at least have a path in 2024 to holding off the trifecta. So maybe we’ve got a 20-25% chance of winning.
That’s down in the 5-6% range, then of course we have to keep holding on another couple cycles probably until demographics shift things in a way that we can actually win a trifecta and enough Senate seats to nuke the filibuster. But if we’ve held off 2024, which is possibly our worse position, we’ve at least got a shot.
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Suppression of exculpatory evidence points in the direction of corrupt in this case. Ianal
Unfortunately this seems hopeless based on the senate structure. Georgia going blue could be replicated in Texas, North Carolina, Florida (starting to get into LOL territory with that one) but the demographic shifts in a whole slew of other states—white moderate states—have been bad or at best inconsequential, given the demise of the white moderate.
Pick a random state in the middle of the country not called Illinois or Colorado. How are demographics helping it turn blue? Unfortunately, they’re all sliding in the wrong direction. We’re wayy more likely to sweat Republican supermajorities in the Senate and eking a Dem president in a generic election. PA, MN, MI, WI, all have plenty of room to slide and likely will do so.
tldr, WAAF
It appears to be a major discovery fuckup that is going to tank whatever prosecution they are currently doing. I kind of remember Durham charged someone minor with something but can’t remember what. Looks like that prosecution is in jeopardy. It’s not “we got him” so much as whatever bullshit they charged someone with may not survive.
I agree we’re way more likely to be trying to fade a GOP super majority, hence why I have this potential outcome at 1% to 5%, and it’s the best we’ve got, and it still sucks.
I think getting to 60 Senate seats is completely hopeless, a path like this might involve either getting to 50 but without Sinema and Manchin or getting to like 53 or 54 and nuking the filibuster.
A big part is also that the longer we go, the more Boomers who die off, and the lower the percentage of the population falling for Qanon type insanity online, since Boomers seem more susceptible. It makes a huge difference if they make up 51% of the Republican party or 49%. Right now they seem closer to 60-70%. But demographic change could at least turn the right wing in the US back into a democracy-accepting party. We’re a shit load of death/turnover away from that, though. Hence surviving a few cycles.
Survive and advance is basically all we’ve got.
You’ve said something to this effect multiple times. I think it is bordering on SweetSummerChild thinking. We’ve seen Trump make gains among populations that were traditionally in the bag for the Dems (e.g. many Latinos). Also maybe there is something about just getting older that makes people more conservative or at least more susceptible to the horseshit that FloridaMan is peddling. So even if the current crop of Boomers dies off, they will be replaced with different olds who may be as susceptible (if not more so because of social media).
tldr version: You could be right, but it s very far from a lock. Closer to a crapshoot.
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Maybe, but at 1-5% I’ve left myself a lot of room. I mean, part of the reason Democrats are bleeding support is that they’re in the tank for corporate America and they’re not doing shit for the regular person. So part of all of this kind of involves baseline competency from them, which is never coming… so… yeah
Biden invades Russia, we’re greeted as liberators, we set up a democracy there and get out, and it’s all over right before the election
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or, the pee tape drops
Goo. Once Trump does this we can stop pretending the US is anything more than a wealthy banana republic owned by kleptocrats.
Even Lindsey Graham is angry with Trump for saying he’ll pardon Jan. 6 rioters.
I think a significant number of Republicans will no longer be able to support Trump. Maybe they won’t go so far as public repudiation, but he’ll continue to lose steam over the next few months.
There’s absolutely no way he can win the nomination after this.
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it took me until the last line lol
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And Merrick Garland is…having DOJ defend him in court.
So Trump is calling on people to “protest” if he is indicted. And that he will pardon if they get in trouble.
Problem he is calling for “protests” in NY and GA as well as DC. Good luck in NY especially to any rioters.
Wouldn’t that just be deep faked away?
That logic is airtight.
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