So he’s probably making sex tapes with teenagers still?
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It’s the same argument that people use for the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact. Opening the door for his shit is why I’ve been against believing that the NPVIC is constitutional.
That’s not moving the needle. Mail-in voting is generally fairly evenly split. Lots of olds love it.
It turns out that Biden would have lost if he had won the popular vote by 3.9%. Scarier still is with optimal gerrymandering a party with only 25% of the popular vote within a state can win more than 50% of a state’s legislative districts.
Republicans can rig the shit out of the system if they want(or of course ignore the results as we fear). Nevertheless, to the Pollyanna folks around here, it can get real bad if the Republicans put in the work. And given that the base is 70% believing in the election steal fantasy, they can justify anything and feel themselves righteous. Given recent Supreme Court rulings and EC advantages for Republicans, this could be minority rule for a loooong time. The aforementioned popular vote posit is based on the tipping point state analysis on wikipedia. As to the gerrymandering posit, it’s based on a 75/25 theoretical limiting case for you math guys.
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Lol you’re the worst kind of poster. Just take one part out of context and only address that when I argued why I don’t think that’s true anymore
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I read your post, and responded to what I wanted to. I didn’t read your follow-up explanation before responding.
I think Covid was a one off for the high vote by mail, and the fervor to vote was incredibly and unusually high given Trump/Covid.
I agree that generally speaking high turnout favors Democrats, but I think it works the other way when the Democrat is the incumbent. If people are fine with the status quo they tend to not vote to upset it: either they don’t vote or they vote for the guy in charge. As I’ve said elsewhere I will be really surprised and would bet against the country being in the midst of a horrible pandemic in 2024, and so most on the fence voters will roll with Joe.
I don’t think the voter suppression efforts will be significant enough (beyond what they already do) to offset the incumbency and normalcy advantage Biden will likely enjoy. Florida and Ohio and NC can do whatever they want: GOP already got those states. Arizona has had mail voting forever and isn’t tossing it. Georgia and Wisconsin don’t move the needle even if they ban Dems from voting.
Functionally it doesn’t matter when deep red states do. What states flip do to oppressive voting rights laws?
Wat.
Both of those were decided by less than 25 thousand votes (out of millions).
I mean: even if Joe loses both of them he still wins 2024.
Like, the context of “ban dems from voting” should have made that clear lmao.
I don’t feel comfortable not having any margin for error.
And I shudder to think what might have happened in 2020 if the margin of victory was 1 state instead of 3.
That concern was addressed in an earlier post: Trump will not have nearly the machinery at his disposal as a former President than as the sitting President. No less a stooge than Mike Pence wasn’t willing to kiss the ring. Not too concerned about them being able to win with less than 270
Read this and tell me everything is okay:
There is one part of this article I disagree with.
No, it won’t.
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The clear rule of law says that state legislatures cannot overrule the will of the voters. But if the vote isn’t officially certified, there is no official will of the voters. There are laws stating that elections must be certified by certain dates, but there a dearth of precedent around what happens if they don’t. And given the Trump administration’s stacking of the lower courts and the wildly conservative imbalance on the Supreme Court, it’s not clear that the outcome would favor the preservation of democracy.
60 to 1
ETA: there a dearth
I’m not convinced mail-in voting favors democrats either, other than this one pandemic year. There is evidence that black people do not trust it, for example, and vote in person at much higher rates then white people.
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I thought the point was that its not a static adjustment. If you take away mail votes you dont just delete current mail in vote counts. You have to add back in substitute in person votes. So Rs might lose as many mail in votes as Ds, but those people have better access to in person voting.
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That’s probably fair.
People seem to be thinking how easy it would be for republican state legislators to refuse to certify election results. Unless it’s a super close race, are legislators going to risk their personal safety to try to steal the vote from their neighbors and fellow town residents?
They’re more likely to be risking their safety by certifying a Democratic victory
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Its a greater risk to their personal safety to go against the 21st century Nazis. You know, the ones with automatic weapons and a cultish devotion to violence?