Well there is a good deal of evidence to show that prediction markets are reasonably accurate. Certainly moreso than a “random sample of the public’s actual thoughts”.
Go ahead and link. Also, election day betting odds doesn’t show anything, because those odds are informed by the polls. If the betting markets had to decide elections without polls, like the way they shifted immediately after the debate, they would vastly disproportionately overate white male candidates, because gamblers are not a representative sample. Or do you think that the “intelligent market” was correct when it decided in like March 2020 there’s a 10% chance Hillary gets the nom or w/e?
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Malarkey. And accepting this as a fatalistic reality is one way we got trump.
I don’t like Biden! But he clowned on trump by saying some things that needed to be said on such a high-profile stage. That matters.
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Like, you don’t need to like Hillary or Obama to note that her dunking on trump for being a racist pos because of the birtherism was A Good Thing that mattered.
Well, when the event is occuring has a great deal of bearing on the accuracy of prediction markets. From the link above:
It should matter. That’s for sure.
Does it actually matter? I’m less sure of that.
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Alright I just watched the debate on DVR. I’m going to skim this thread but I want to get my reactions in before I’m influenced by the thread:
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Very few minds will have been changed. Biden supporters will say he won and vice versa. Biden win though.
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Key moment: Joe talks about kitchen table issues and Trump shits all over it like c’mon Joe who cares. That’ll be in ads tomorrow and until the election. Huge gaffe.
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Trump got his soundbyte for ads on oil. Thank God so many people voted early in Texas. That’ll hurt Joe there in particular.
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Undecideds will break hard for Joe down the stretch. He won on COVID, he cares about middle class families, he spoke of unity and no red and blue states.
Prediction: no change in polling or small (1-2 pts) shift to Biden overall.
Also, Joe was as sharp tonight as he’s been at any point in this cycle. He’s a big game player. Best speech of his life? Presidential acceptance speech. Best debate of the last 1.5 years? Presidential Debate #3.
LOL moment: Trump says some crazy shit and Joe goes, “Ohhh God.”
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When he said something like “My people tell me I pre paid millions,” I was really hoping Joe would say, “Dude how do you not know whether or not you paid millions? How do you not know that? No wonder you keep going bankrupt. We’ve got millions of families trying to figure out whether their last $200 for the month should go to food or medicine, and you aren’t sure whether or not you paid millions? How could you possibly understand their struggle and help them???”
SNL is going to have a field day. That was like Biden doing Carrey doing Biden.
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The B, the I, the D, the E, the N, the J, the O, the E I’m Bidennnnnn… Joe Bidennnnnn…
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She definitely threw him a couple alley oops by repeating something Trump had just said that he hadn’t responded on that was important to respond on.
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You owe me royalties on 18 likes.
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Now 21.
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Daniel Jones run=2016 Hilary.
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IIRC it was like 96-97%.
The. Moderator. Is. Oh for fuck’s sake nevermind. Please proceed, jackass.
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Got a frying pan?
Ohhhhh shit. Your boy is droppin bodies on social media @skydiver8. Daaaaaammmmnnnnn!!!
I noticed that too lollll…
Tapper had some quip about Trump doing better than the first one, in that he roughly approximated human behavior… Almost.
Tapper GOAT. He’s from Philly. Philly GOAT don’t @ me we’re going to deliver you all Pennsylvania. Anyone wants to @ me with Pennsylvania hate, you can come see me Sunday knocking on doors. I’m free this Sunday to canvass cause my PHILADELPHIA Eagles won tonight.
The average voter doesn’t even watch the whole debate, let alone the post-game. We’re good.
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Nixon’s DOJ called Trump racist.
Imagine how racist you have to be to be called racist by Nixon’s DOJ. That’s like the KKK telling you that you poured too much lighter fluid on your cross, ease up there buddy.
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