Throwing out the bold prediction that today will go down as one of the best days to buy bitcoin of the year.
Still bullish.
3 Likes
I backed the truck up at 31.5k but then, um, unloaded the truck at 33.1k. This was overnight and I feel like a genius for placing an order for what was the bottom and having it hit. Not so much a genius for selling the 5ish% as soon as I woke up, weâll see.
I mean it literally was a panic sale so that should give an idea of my sentiments. Profitable trades can still be total panic even if youâre buying a local bottom and selling a micro top. I was like, let me sell this shit as fast as possible and place another buy order around 32k before I even go to the bathroom. I almost peed and poopooed myself clicking the buttons, for those who prefers detailed descriptions.
In fact, if youâre not totally clueless and uninformed (a little but not totally) you can use your personal sentiments to gauge the total market sentiments. Because for all my allusions to poker, itâs really more like that myth of how a player playing blackjack poorly at your table will fuck you up, that I mentioned once. Jimmy Buffett or somebody says that nonsense about âIf thereâs blood in the streets, if everybody is selling, that when you buyâ and I get the broad strokes of it but Iâm like, James, if you bought right then and it turned out to be a profitable trade then you werenât really going against the grain and a whole lot of people were thinking the same way.
The only improvement I can think of is replacing all the bad sounds with good sounds so itâs all good sounds.
7 Likes
I agree with the idea of intellectual growth to the point that you can trust that your gut is similar to mass sentiment. Itâs especially tricky keeping confident when the market doesnât immediately react the way you predict (or thereâs a shakeout, mini top, whatever, so you lose faith). Iâve made the mistake of falling back from my âobviousâ gut plays when in reality I was just a tiny bit early / more researched than the average joe and there was much more time/room for exponential growth, etc.
The only part I disagree with is that âyouâ can do this, as in anyone. The fact you feel this way is indicative of all of the hours youâve put in to this, whatever depth of analysis it may have specifically been. Weâre describing experience.
3 Likes
Thatâs all true but to add, I was also getting at exploring why one feels bearish or bullish, the gut instinct, from the ground up, and how much that compares to the average. For example, if I feel panicked (thatâs probably not the best term⌠maybe âextremely short-term bearishâ and not âoh noez my moneyâ) does that mean the average joe is super panicked because I rarely panic, or does it mean because I rarely panic then all the average joe panic is exhausted, and weâre at the bottom? More like saying that the Buffett platitudes as stated donât work simply from a logistical standpoint and this is all like a prisonerâs dilemma more than anything. If enough people believe the incorrect thing then they become correct.
Another example would be that despite me telling everybody to buy bitcoin last year, and saying that the price is going to shoot up after the election no matter who wins, and even more if Biden wins, I was dead wrong about how quickly it would move. And that it would rip so fast altcoins would suffer (I got in too early in a few positions). I wouldâve bet the farm that bitcoin hit 30k in 2021 but also that it would not in 2020 (I wouldâve barely lost this but still) so where does this nuance leave me in terms of price analysis? The sentiment right before it broke 20k and ripped to 30k was super short-term bearish. To add another wrinkle, this same thing happened in 2016-17, when the bulliest of bulls had their bulliest outlook not even at 10k. Should I have folded that in and assumed that while my gut was correct about the midterm, it totally wrong about the velocity and scope of the pump? And does it mean we are also incorrect right now about the velocity and scope of the dump?
Btw these are all rhetorical questions lol this is my diary.
Based on my expert graph reading skills
If you filter the BTC chart for all time
It should probably be like 15k
Not financial advice
one country down⌠world reserve currency drawing live?
More like coup in El Salvador drawing live
4 Likes
All of the maxi accounts taking this as a bottom, if anyone is paying attention. Also hilarious seeing the âotherâ bitcoins pop off of the news, too.
X is time
Y is workplace productivity
8 Likes
You mean the bitcoin maximalists? Weird that I literally just went to Tone Vaysâ youtube to see what that deplorable lunatic was up to and heâs predicting mid-high 20s.
you are incorrect
Alllll of the maxis, including the eth ones are spamming buy this morning. Unless theyâre lying on twitter.
Links? I avoid those crazies generally, theyâre usually the âbitcoin will replace food and waterâ dudes.
The people I look at are all saying the bottom is sub-20k. I need to follow more good news people.
Youâre right that most of the positive people are just trying to shill something or start a cult.
https://twitter.com/AWice
https://twitter.com/MikeMcDonald89
https://twitter.com/jespow
My idea of the sentiment is literally based on the past 24 hours (and is a short term âgut feelingâ that can end very quickly) so a lot of the content/youtube stuff will be out of date.
1 Like
ALEX WICE IN THE HOUSE
1 Like
specifically included the cult word for him =/
If he was being 100% honest he should have gone broke last dip so somethingâs fishy with him either way.
Was just about to post this. The Tone Vays video was 17 hours old, so yesterday afternoonish.