All this may be true. None of it is a reason.
Although this is in the process of happening right now, there isnât another currency that isnât worse in every way that matters for international trade. The Euro is too dominated by Germanyâs parochial interest, the Yuan is too debt ridden and manipulated and China is collapsing anyway, crypto is to volatile and has no armies.
As the USA becomes more isolationist, that actually makes the dollar a better reserve currency. Itâs not going to be manipulated to favor one side of a trade except incidentally.
Yeah, I agree. Itâs another version of an outcome most probable relative to other possibilities still having low absolute probability of happening. Like the books currently have the Bills as the team most likely to win the next Super Bowl, but itâs a +650 bet.
âOnlyâ losing $1K plus the considerable stress and hassle didnât feel like much of a consolation.
As for losing crypto keys, with self-custody comes responsibility, and the onus is on the holder to take measures to safeguard them. Not everyoneâs up to that task and if not, they probably shouldnât dabble in crypto.
Not sure if we are that lucky. There is probably a lot more nerds and smart money fixated on preventing this entropy than we know. The masses are too dumb anyways, we can be hypnotized into anything. Of course there are angles where it wouldnât matter, I guess. We are all all lot dumber than we realize.
:test:
:coolbiden:
I think itâll depend on the outcome with a war with China in the East or South China Sea. If the US loses that war or doesnât fight it then the USD is toast. If the US wins? I donât know. Itâs kind of hard to imagine the USD dominance fading when the US still has global military dominance sufficient to win a war in Chinaâs backyard. Will the US fight to maintain that financial dominance and keep South Korea, Japan, and the rest of SE Asia aligned with the US? Probably, if the US can win.
The US also needs to remain roughly the same geopolitical unit to win wars and have its currency be the global reserve. What are the odds that California, Texas, Florida and New York are all part of the same country 50 years from now?
Usa lost to half of Korea, half of Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq (twice). You think usa v China would even be a close match?
If the dollar is going to remain the global reserve, we will have to work hard to make it more desirable. My idea - replace all the pictures of dead presidents with cartoon apes.
Pretty good? I donât see much interest in succession in the US.
The crypto crowd has shifted to âthe US is going to lose the reserve currencyâ, which is undoubtedly true long term, as a reason why crypto has value.
The rest of the world has been talking about what they can do to replace the USD as the reserve currency for over a decade at this point⌠and itâs a basket of major global fiat currencies.
I donât see countries with substantially more aggressive regulatory regimes becoming more coequal members of a global reserve currency basket being good for an environmentally expensive anti government virtual currency⌠but you guys do you.
One thing doesnât follow the other at all. Iâll accept that the reason someone should bet on crypto is that a lot of people think itâs worth a lot of money and that as long as more money is coming in from new investors than is going out to pay the miners it will generally go up⌠but thatâs all I see here. In terms of value added and problems solved in the real world in 2022 the entire web3 sector is at zero. Some of it might be more valuable in the future but the best way to make money off of that is to get a job in the space and really understand it⌠which Iâm not going to do.
In an air/naval war? Sure, maybe. The US couldnât invade China obviously but it seems plausible that the US could defend Taiwan or the Spratly islands.
I donât think anybody is making this argument. Iâm stating reasons why I think the future is likely to be far more volatile than many seem to expect, which should increase the number of low probability events.
And Iâm asking how that volatility helps crypto in any way. If anything it seems like a huge risk since inflows have to be greater than outflows. When people arenât feeling safe they arenât piling into the highest risk assets that exist.
One argument (not mine) is that at some point BTC becomes more stable and lower risk than fiat bux. That doesnât seem very likely to me, but enough volatility does increase the chances of something that drastic happening so Iâm not going to rule it out.
Crypto hasnât been stable for 12 years, but the 13th year is definitely the one!