FOMO happens at both tops and bottoms. Lot of copium in here recently that this isn’t the bottom. The reason Bitcoin often has these 30-50%+ mega rallies is because people keep thinking it’s going lower and lower and they eventually buy back in a lot higher. Even a lot of the people who said they would buy 20k didn’t when it got there, oh no I’ll wait 10k. And if it went 10k they wouldn’t buy there either. They’ll buy at 100k instead.
I continue to buy as we go lower. Bittersweet for me if that was the bottom. When corn go up you never feel like you have enough
Or consider that the real cult is believing with absolute certainty that zero is Coming Soon when we’ve had nothing but evidence to suggest the opposite for over a decade now.
Do you feel that BTC could gain in value in the next 3-5 years if the US stock market where stay flat or drop in that time frame? It’s like so much time has passed and we’ve changed so much from 2008 that people think nothing really changes other than your seasonal shrinkage in 401ks and our retirement is delayed a teensy bit. You seem to agree (maybe it was someone else) that FOMO is real … if the greater market rebounds to new highs like it has since the genesis of btc, btc could rip to 100k but I am trying to understand reasonings for why it isn’t the greatest short of our lifetime if we don’t - other than it’s preformed as some 3x etf with the QE.
I think it’s possible for BTC to decouple in such an environment, but I don’t think it’s great odds. That said, SPY is down 20% in a month and during that timeframe, GME is up 40%. I’d be sweating hold a short in that. Shorting is scary when you know there’s a lot of money on the sidelines ready to pile in immediately at even the slightest hint of something bullish macro-wise, including the fed turning back on the printers. And since i’m bullish on BTC longterm I always want to have exposure to it no matter how bad things look.
Right, I mean I think that the idea that BTC will go to zero in the next year (or even close to zero, like sub $100 let’s say) is for sure nuttier than the idea that it will hit a new ATH, although I think both are very unlikely. But the point of my post is that this doesn’t mean that the detractors are wrong in their criticisms of BTC. That the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints is based around, in my opinion, obvious bullshit doesn’t mean that the number of adherents is going to zero anytime soon. But nor does the fact that the church has survived for 150 years or whatever lend any credence at all to the claims of its proponents. One reason the discussion in this thread is so circular is that people keep implicitly assuming that one of these things is true when it comes to BTC.
Right now something like 1/4th of young men are not dating. Thats lots of potential angry Jordan Peterson watching mad at the government and economy libertarians.
My thought is that bitcoin is dumb and shouldn’t really be a thing. Same thing for gold and its value above its industrial and decorative uses. I’ve thought this since I first heard of bitcoin. Am I “wrong”? I’m wrong in that if I had invested in bitcoin when I first heard of it I’d be a lot richer than I am today. I cashed out $20,000 from Bodog when bitcoin was 350 and had to go through bitcoin. It was all winnings and the thought briefly passed through my mind: why not take a flier with half of it on bitcoin? I decided against it and man I sure could use that half million dollars today.
But of course, would it be a half million dollars? It would not! I would have sold it when it got to 700 bucks probably, exactly because I’m not a True Believer. And that would have made me feel EVEN WORSE. But then, as now, my investment strategy is simple: buy mutual funds that should provide a variable but ultimately predictable real return. People say that crytos are just like the stock market but it’s not true. Fundamentally you wouldn’t expect cryptocurrency to generate a return any more than holding a sack full of money. So I don’t buy crypto, or yen, or Euros, or gold, all for the same reason: you wouldn’t expect these currencies (“currencies” in some cases as cryptos or gold aren’t actually ever used as money) to produce a real return over time. Abandoning my likely sound investment strategy to wildly speculate will just inevitably cause me pain, either through real losses or even more devastating psychological losses, like if I had sold my $350 crypto flier at $700.
So as to the question of why are so many people so sure of crypto’s failure and so gloat-y with each fall? I suspect the reason again is psychological. I’ve inured myself to the rise and fall of my investments by really firmly buying into my investment thesis: the slow, steady growth of the broad stock market is the key to someone like me building wealth. I suspect that you’re in a similar position with your own: that crypto is the future and big growth in that space is inevitable. Now of course, our investment approaches are at odds with each other, but that doesn’t mean we have to be at odds with each other, and aren’t. I’d never gloat over crypto’s fall and am not certain what the crypto price should be. Now, I think it’s dumb but man I’ve been wrong about the price so far so why would anyone listen to me about crypto projections. I just know it’s not for me. So crypto’s gains or losses don’t effect me at all. Who cares.
As far as people who do gloat about crypto’s downfall and are seemingly certain over its demise? I suspect they aren’t really all that sure and their lashing out is a mix of anger at missing out of a get rich quick opportunity, fear at missing out again, envy of those who did have the balls to take a risk on crypto and get rich, and hurt pride at having their “lol crytpto” predictions repeatedly get totally and completely crushed. Not surprising that people behave that way but it’s not productive to really give such spiteful haters the time of day.
I agree with this except bitcoin isn’t a currency anymore.
Resembles more of a financial instrument than currency. So, if you buy bitcoin, its not for the same reasons you buy currencies.
Gold used to be a currency when it was traded back and forth for goods and services, now its a lump of shiny rock that is used primarily as a store of “value” and the rest as industrial / materialistic use.