Yeah I am very bearish still because armchair theorising aside, it has long been obvious that crypto behaves as a risk-on asset. And in an environment where people are deleveraging from risk generally, with an asset with negative returns for a long while now, when there have been high-profile crypto implosions… Like I don’t know how many people are lining up to catch the falling knife there. I will start thinking about buying BTC if it gets into 4 figures.
What would personally be your reasoning for buying btc at say 8K or whatever 4 figure amount that would interest you?
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This has long been my theory about why Crypto valuations have such a low floor. When we finally hit a true bear market, the people who are willing to buy Crypto near the actual bottom aren’t the people with cash on the sidelines waiting for wherever they think prices bottom out. Everybody who would pump 6 figures into $2k Bitcoin is probably massively Crypto exposed and leveraged to the hilt on all sorts of other assets.
JPM, BOA, Hedge funds aren’t waiting for Crypto to bottom out, they’ll laugh at Bitcoin going to $300 because it means they no longer have rivals in terms of financial power despite them piling in billions near the top.
Like for example, if S&Ps hit 800 on Monday I’m probably buying for about 75% of my liquid cash. If Bitcoin goes to $1k on Monday I’m buying 0
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Crypto isn’t going anywhere. The criticisms towards fiat money aren’t going anywhere. People will jump back in when the dust settles because they are hoping to moon. The people who think that it is all going to zero are the insane ones.
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Thanks for the well thought out insight
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Ah ok. These are all things I’ve said in this thread towards the beginning. The post you were replying to implied you were going to say something different.
Here’s the bitcoin thesis:
https://twitter.com/haralabob/status/1537737087847366657?s=21&t=EUi28MDP3NHP4FlIN6Q8Zw
https://twitter.com/haralabob/status/1537833845583761409?s=21&t=EUi28MDP3NHP4FlIN6Q8Zw
https://twitter.com/kbagrie/status/1537765403337707520?s=21&t=EUi28MDP3NHP4FlIN6Q8Zw
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Summon the crypto trolls to the crypto thread. Bitcoin is crashing to the earth.
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Hypothetically if a financial product is structured in a way that makes it attractive as an inflation hedge, but a bunch of speculative investors buy it with shit tons of leverage, then the broad markets and crypto markets pull back, the deleveraging could cause a crash that makes the product fail to be an inflation hedge this time. But that doesn’t mean it can’t be that in the future, if the leverage is not allowed back in.
We see stocks suffer as collateral damage all the time. Like AAPL got crushed during the tech bubble, but obviously it was worth way more than it was driven down to at the time.
Oil could be an inflation hedge, but the US government could dump the entire strategic reserve on the market and crash oil prices.
Gold could be an inflation hedge, but if some hedge fund levered up on it and ran into a leverage crisis and had to dump a massive gold position on the market, the price would crash.
In the past six months I’ve basically come to believe that the only real inflation hedges are commodities necessary to survival, and investing in those carries some not insignificant drag in fees.
Anyway I don’t want to sound like I’m totally sold on BTC as a store of value or inflation hedge, I’m very much unsure. In the absence of that, I’m not totally sure what the bull thesis for Bitcoin becomes, if there is one. I don’t think “The blockchain is super useful,” does it for me.
I mean, OK, but why can’t Ethereum or Solana or some new coin be more useful and be what stuff is built on? Like I could get behind thinking of owning crypto as owning the factory/real estate NFTs, Blockchain tickets, etc are minted in/on, and increased demand would drive up the price, but what’s stopping Ticketmaster from saying “Screw this, we’ll make TicketCoin?”
Like “People love watching movies at home and will spend money on it,” was true but was not a good bull thesis for Blockbuster circa 2000.
On the other hand I’m not sure there’s any other way to invest in blockchain technology right now. If there was a publicly traded company that specialized in creating stuff on the blockchain, creating crypto, etc for corporate clients, I’d sell all my crypto and move the money to that. But as far as I know there’s no such thing.
The lowest price at which you will be able to buy one Bitcoin before it next reaches $50k
- Bitcoin will never hit $50k again.
- <$1k
- $1k-$4k
- $4k-$8k
- $8k-$12k
- $12k-$15k
- $15k-$17k
- $17k+
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At least that welsh guy digging in the dumpsters for his ledger can finally rest.
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https://mobile.twitter.com/JulianKlymochko/status/1537771933416050688
This is cringe on multiple levels.
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I am not saying it “isn’t” a store of value. Plenty of people placed their money into bitcoin thinking it was a store of value vs inflation. And in an environment when all assets are being repriced downwards, bitcoin has fared the worst.
The podcast that was linked earlier had a finance professor aggregate data and conclude that Michael Saylor dumping his bitcoin could crash the price 50%, which would trigger even more margin call meltdowns in the market. 1 man alone could send the price down less than $10K? That’s a dangerous store of value.
I am saying the case that its the best or among the best stores of value there is has proven to be completely untrue. Right now, as inflation has peaked 10%, real estate (soon to be repriced downwards, but as rents go up prices may remain stable for multifamily), cash and gold has proven to hold best.
In the future, 20-30 years from now, if an inflation hits 10% again and the feds raise the rates again to reign in inflation, what is the thesis that says bitcoin goes up in value? The historical precedent (last 12 months) shows us people liquidate the risk assets.
That’s not a thesis for $100K or $500K bitcoin, that’s a thesis for trading the asset because its highly volatile.
But if your only use for bitcoin is to trade it to make money, then I am proven correct. To you it’s not a store of value, hedge against inflation, nor a currency.
Shouldn’t crypto bros be cheering the crash? Great spot to buy at a discount right?
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Who hurt you?
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Modtroll is a good word.