p.p.s. but also lol it might legit go to zero, i’m not entirely sure, and the fact that you’re asking means that there probably hasn’t actually been any in-depth discussion here
1 Like
Yeah that’s fine imo and tbh Solana is also fine.
1 Like
I haven’t really followed this thread so I don’t know how much it’s been discussed.
I mean I know there’s a non-zero chance that all crypto goes to zero. My expectation is that at least a few coins remain standing, with a chance they’re way below today’s values and a chance they’re way above today’s values, and I don’t have the expertise to prognosticate much beyond that.
OK cool. Yeah Solana is literally the only investment in my life that I’ve made cause a friend told me to. He’s in a group chat with some guys I know have done absurdly well with crypto, he made like three or four recommendations in a row based on that group that I didn’t act on and they all did well, so when he suggested Solana I went for it - but for a small amount obviously, like well under 1% of my net worth.
Oh ok that makes sense.
Ugh, this conversation makes me want to hop back into that discord and learn and get involved with this stuff, but I’ve had a few setbacks (too much time off dodging Omicron, a couple of my bread and butter games died locally and created a gap in stakes forcing me to choose the smaller option, plus inflation)… So I don’t have much bankroll to spare and I’m spending way more time than usual grinding and studying poker as a result.
Here is the fundamental problem as of right now with crypto, even if we just limit that to BTC and ETH (and SOL lol), as a passive investment:
Crypto has only existed in one long extended equity bullrun. In fact that was the reason BTC was invented, as the legend tells it, to hedge against global financial collapse. Turns out, a dozen years later, oops, it’s the complete opposite and quite possibly the most risk-on asset ever conceived.
This is reflected here:
Knowing nothing about that graph, even having every label removed, you could look at it and see that a pattern has clearly broken. One of the big value propositions for BTC is that it keeps following that pattern. So it breaks, perhaps not uncoincidentally, right as we’ve entered a recession (yes, we’re in a recession, the question is whether how big and long it will be) and nobody really really knows what happens now.
One hypothesis is that obviously as the market matures there won’t be these big huge boom bust cycles with parabolic moves in both directions; given the recent events that is also obviously being thoroughly tested. The second hypothesis is that it “goes to zero” in the sense of zero growth, much like the real gold counterpoint to its digital gold standing.
Zoomed in on a linear scale the parabolic moves are highlighted:
Compared to this one:
All the people saying “well it’s fine, bitcoin has had 85% corrections before” are ignoring that those corrections are measured from the insane blowoff tops. 85% from this current cycle high is 10k again.
1 Like
fucking moonboy degenerate this one
It’s not so much that it will go to 0, but that it will feel like 0 if you bought at the top and the longterm growth is arrested. You could’ve bought the absolute top in 2017/18 and still have a sick 50% profit after all this mayhem.
1 Like
Yeah so like I always thought the case for BTC was as a sort of digital gold. Why is gold supposed to be a hedge, or a place people run to in market crashes? Well we all just kind of agreed it was valuable, right? Like yeah it’s shiny and it’s strong and there’s a limited amount of it, but like the first thing just makes it good for jewelry and such, the strength is good I guess, and the limited amount only matters if we want it. I don’t see why BTC couldn’t function similarly, if people just all valued it. And perhaps in this case people means people under 40, who are more into it.
What is stock/flow? And has a pattern actually broken? It got plenty above and below the blue line before while generally following it. Generally it seems like when it gets within 800-900 days of the next halving, it’s going to crash. Then when it gets to like 400-600 days to the next halving it’s going to melt up. This last runup wasn’t as significant, obviously, but it still got above the previous one, right? And there was a little dead cat bounce after most of the rest.
Generally speaking, assets tend to lose value and become undervalued during a recession, so if this is an extremely risky asset, we’d expect it to become very undervalued during a recession, then explode out of it, right?
OK zoomed in that’s more clear. So this one didn’t really melt up the way it was expected to, that’s the pattern break you were referring to. I mean, doesn’t it just require a lot more capital to melt up when it gets to higher and higher valuations? Isn’t that part of the problem? Way less money has to pour in to take it from $10 to $100 or $100 to $1,000 than from $30,000 to $300,000.
So I guess the question here is what arrests long-term growth in this, compared to say silver as you showed? Like, is it just that not enough more people come into the market and not enough more capital comes in for BTC? Cause obviously it’s not going to be an issue of supply blowing up out of control.
I’m not really sure what cuased that dynamic with silver, never made a ton of sense to me when I briefly thought about it a few years ago.
at this point i need a tally on how much money this donk shit cost people
I see a red line and a conma
1 Like
Oh shit lol we lost on that squiggle, in ETH and USD terms. We could’ve trimmed some of the loss earlier if he didn’t try to steal it from us.
2 Likes
Just popping in to repeat.
Beanie. Babies. Fad.
3 Likes
Thanks. Selling crypto and buying some oil stocks or some bonds issued by the US government!
1 Like
Not saying one cannot take advantage of the market, just that it’s not a stable instrument with possibly no inherent underlying value.
I do not categorize ETH as safe as BTC. “There is no second best.” That said, I think ETH is order of magnitudes safer than any other alt coin for a long-term hold. Would not hold anything other than BTC and ETH for long-term if you aren’t actively trading. Your position in SOL is so low though that it doesn’t really matter I guess, sounds like it’s just a small gamble for you.
60/40 is a good ratio IMO. If you go off the mcaps of BTC relative to ETH you would be at 70/30 so you’re not far off that. Basically you’re indexing BTC and ETH with a ratio around there, which is what I do as well.