The Crypto Thread

[hokie]

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/VariableCarefulAtlanticridleyturtle-size_restricted.gif

[Riverman]

Lol Tesla

https://twitter.com/questmalloy/status/1524100488010080258?s=21&t=GdbIiYuoBxiPiehdBaa-kg

[bobman0330]

The Tether chart is interesting, because the potential attack on Tether would look something like:

1. Short all the Tether you can borrow, driving down the price.
2. Buy Tether up to par and cash it out.
3. Repeat Step 2 (and optionally Step 1) until Tether runs out of money and collapses.
4. Cover the shorts with worthless USDCs.

According to their last financial report, Tether has $78.675 billion of assets backed by $195 million of equity (as of 12/31). About $13 billion of those assets are risky assets (crypto, unspecified “secured loans,” etc.). Given those facts, Tether is almost certainly insolvent, so a bank-run attack ought to work. I don’t know how long the redemption cycle is, so you might need a lot of capital to break the bank in a reasonable period of time.

Also, the 2021Q4 financial report was published in late February, so the Q1 report should theoretically be coming out soon.

[mukdukaluk]

Lolll excellent name change

[spidercrab]

This is way crazier than I expected - just lol at $195 million of equity supporting $79 billion of assets.

The possible saving grace here is that they list $5 billion of the really, really risky stuff (“Other Investments (including digital tokens)”), much of which is valued at the lower of cost or fair market value. So if I were someone who relied at all upon Tether being solvent, I’d be crossing my fingers and praying that those digital assets simply have an extraordinarily low cost basis and a much high (multi billions higher) market value.

[dlk9s]

https://twitter.com/pixelatedboat/status/1524731123795783681

I always buy one physical ape to sell, one to keep in its box, and one to play with.

[jwax13]

@danby

So was the entire Terra Luna project just one big ponzi scheme?

[suzzer99]

@anon29622970

Riverman and Suzzer were right, Bitcoin is going to zero. What they didn’t predict is that literally everything is going to zero!

Except it’s not all going to zero. Some stonks still have intrinsic value that will stop the freefall when value investors step in.

This was my third post in this thread:

@suzzer99

The rubber hits the road when you start asking what’s there to prop up the price when all this craziness starts happening in reverse. With land at least you can live on it or farm it. With stonks at least you own X% of the company if it ever gets sold.

With NFTs there is nothing, not even a nice bulb you can plant to see grow up into a tulip. It’s exactly like those companies that sell plots of land on the Moon. You have a certificate that says you own something that you can never actually possess, with no practical utility.

NFTs are basically a currency - which exist solely by virtue of the faith of the people who use them. Except it’s non-fungible, which makes it a crappy currency.

FWIW I can see if the AR metaverse ever really takes off - being able to own some avatar there to impress people does have some utility. So I don’t agree with the last 2 paragraphs any more.

But that hasn’t happened yet. And what that will be worth is hard to say. I doubt anyone’s spending $500k on a monkey avatar just to impress their friends. They’re doing it in hopes it will go up in value. So you have to start from square one once the speculators leave. What is the intrinsic value of having a certain avatar? I’d pay $100 for mine. Beyond that, no. And I really like my avatar.

[SvenO]

Haven’t read anything, but I assume someone in this thread should be banned.

[Riverman]

Suzzer and I are old. We’ve seen this movie before. For some weird human psychology reason, most people don’t get stuff until it happens to them. This is why we have not only recurring financial panics but also constant idiotic wars and widespread heinous political beliefs.

[SvenO]

Can I bet one of you what performs better in the next year. The S&P 500 or bitcoin?

[suzzer99]

I know which one I’m betting my retirement savings on (still terrified though).

One year is a random walk. Feel free to lay out your reasoning though for why you think BTC will outperform SPY for the next year.

[suzzer99]

Yeah I’m not getting a vibe that everyone itt had this on their bingo card. Of course when the dust settles, people like you are going to effortlessly pivot to “Of course it was going to crash, I still made my money lol at u”. You’re a day trader, not a true believer.

But let’s just ignore all the argle bargle for the last year about how old idiots like me don’t get the brave new world of NFTs, just like people didn’t get the internet. It’s not just a ponzi scheme. This time things are different old man.

[Trolly]

Sort of doubt BTC literally goes to zero. There are enough die-hard guys who will be DCAing into perpetuity, that’s going to keep the price at some floor.

[suzzer99]

Same - BTC has utility. Where that floor is found though is anyone’s guess.

[beetlejuice]

Old man take a look at my life L-O-L @ U

[Lawnmower_Man]

@anon3530961

In case of an investigation by any federal entity or similar, I do not have any involvement with this group or with the people in it, I do not know how I am here, probably added by a third party.

@wellakshuallyFBIbrosimnotjosh

[zikzak]

@suzzer99

Yeah I’m not getting a vibe that everyone itt had this on their bingo card.

The vibe among those affected seems to be mostly dark humor and acceptance. Not sure about how all the strawmen are feeling.

[anon38180840]

@suzzer99

FWIW I can see if the AR metaverse ever really takes off - being able to own some avatar there to impress people does have some utility. So I don’t agree with the last 2 paragraphs any more.

But that hasn’t happened yet. And what that will be worth is hard to say. I doubt anyone’s spending $500k on a monkey avatar just to impress their friends. They’re doing it in hopes it will go up in value. So you have to start from square one once the speculators leave. What is the intrinsic value of having a certain avatar? I’d pay $100 for mine. Beyond that, no. And I really like my avatar.

How much money would you pay for a watch or jewelry? Now how much money do wealthy people spend on watches and jewelry? Celebs? Athletes?

[anon38180840]

@suzzer99

Yeah I’m not getting a vibe that everyone itt had this on their bingo card.

This is what, the third time in the last few years that BTC has lost 50% or more from its peak?