Well that’s all I’ve ever said. I never once said I knew when it would crash or that it couldn’t go up 10x before that. Just that at some point the bubble would work in reverse and a lot of shit would fall apart.
If I had to bet, I would also bet against BTC will go to zero. It might even level off here.
The problem is no one knows what it’s intrinsically worth. So it’s all goodwill, or badwill in times like these. But it does seem like BTC has been around long enough that it’s not just going to go away or go down to $1 or anything.
I would bet against it. The bloom is off the rose. There won’t be as many true HODL believers the next time it makes a run, and a lot more people trying to time their exit. A lot more people hoping to 2x vs. 10x sets a lower ceiling.
maybe it’s phrased poorly, what i meant was that suzzer and rm have been dunking on crypto for many years with no skin in the game, and are pretty f’ing sure that their opinions are correct. in that scenario, i’d probably find a way to benefit from that.
i like ‘em both, but having the same two people pointing and laughing at the thing that is at that moment costing me (small amounts of) money, it sucks. lol
If I thought there was an easy way to bet on crypto eventually crashing w/o risking ruin, I’d have done it. But I hate shorting something volatile like that for precisely the reasons described.
Also shorting crypto isn’t that easy. How do you short monkey jpegs? There are a few vehicles to short some aspects of crypto I believe, but all of them seem very time sensitive. I don’t know of anything like puts on crypto, and I doubt they’d be as long as the time horizon I’d want anyway.
yeah if someone’s got skin in the game, even if they’re rooting against your team, they can be a fun hang. that’s probably why it comes off as mean spirited.
Trying to short a speculative bubble is a risky proposition even if you’re right about it being a bubble. Michael Burry almost went busto shorting the housing market.
5 years. I cashout if dips below a certain amount, otherwise I lose whatever I put in.
I’d put some money on BTC $1000 right now if I could get odds.
Then again I would have put money on BTC $200 when it got to $2000. Which would probably make me gunshy to bet against it now.
BTC is scary to bet against in any kind of time frame because it’s already stood the test of time. My thesis has always been more like “This shit is going to work in reverse at some point and it will be hard to find a floor because a lot of this stuff has no intrinsic value. People will look back on paying the price of a house for a pointer to a monkey jpeg as a bit crazy.”
Even if you knew Madoff was a ponzi scheme, how could you make money off that? You can’t, you can just wait for the carnage.
The Big Short guys made money off the financial crisis. But I don’t have access to short that kind of stuff. I felt like housing prices were so out of whack, and was sure enough that something bad was coming, that I took my money out of the market before the crash. In retrospect, I was probably just mashing buttons and got lucky. But that’s really the only move I could have made.
i really doubt ODB is a crypto bro or have fun being poor crowd and he’s pretty old. all he meant is that you’re an asshole (he did, i have no opinion on the matter)
When they went under they still had tons of bitcoin and cash just not enough to cover everything. It would have been done a lot sooner if it wasn’t for some obviously failing lawsuits from people trying to get in front of people like me. They also found a wallet containing 78000 bitcoin at some point after the bankruptcy and the private key to access it.
