The Coup in Bolivia

I think it’s about time the right wing coup in Bolivia got it’s own thread. Not sure how to cliffs the situation for anyone not following it and I’ll make this post a wiki so anyone with more knowledge can add to it or correct me, but Cliffs:

Evo Morales, Bolivia’s first Indigenous president who also happens to be a socialist, was first elected in 2006. His administration focused on the implementation of leftist policies, poverty reduction, and combating the influence of the United States and multinational corporations in Bolivia. He is the head of the Movement for Socialism (MAS) party.

In February 2016, a referendum was held on the question of whether Morales should be allowed to run for a fourth term; he narrowly lost. In December 2016 the MAS nominated Morales as their candidate for the 2019 presidential election regardless, stating that they would seek various avenues to ensure the legality of such a candidacy. In November 2017, the Supreme Tribunal of Justice of Bolivia ruled that—in contrast to the constitution—all public offices would have no term limits, blaming American imperialism and influence for the referendum’s outcome, thus allowing Morales to run for a fourth term in 2019. In May 2019, Luis Almagro, the secretary general of the Organization of American States, supported Morales participation in the 2019 election.

People on the right (presumably backed by the US on some level, because it’s a stretch to imagine no US involvement in any attempt to oust a socialist leader in Latin America) were upset that he was running again. From last December:

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1073125371866963968

So the elections went ahead, and he ended up winning by more than 10 percent over his nearest rival, meaning despite winning a plurality vs majority, no run-off was required and he was re-elected.

According to wikipedia

The results were immediately disputed and led to widespread protests across the country. Responding to the concerns and violent protests, Morales asked the Organization of American States (OAS) to conduct an audit of the vote count. Morales said he would call for a second-round runoff vote with Mesa if the OAS’ audit found evidence of fraud. Morales asked the protesters to observe a truce while the OAS conducted the audit but Mesa asked his supporters to maintain their strikes and street protests.

On November 9, 2019 the Organization of American States (OAS) published a preliminary report that there were “clear manipulations” including physical records with alterations and forged signatures, and evidence of wide-scale data manipulation. The next day Morales announced that fresh elections would take place. The police joined the protests against Morales[269] and on November 10 according to The New York Times: “the commander of Bolivia’s armed forces, Gen. Williams Kaliman, said the military chiefs believed he should step down to restore ‘peace and stability and for the good of our Bolivia.’”

On November 12 Morales flew to Mexico and accepted asylum there.Morales, along with the governments of Mexico, Cuba, Uruguay, Nicaragua, the Nicolás Maduro-led disputed government of Venezuela, as well as the President-elect of Argentina, maintain that his removal was a coup.

So was there election fraud followed by Morales stepping down in response to calls for him to resign, or was it a right-wing coup? I don’t even know how hard the mainstream media is selling the fraud + resign angle, but here’s the coup version.

http://cepr.net/press-center/press-releases/no-evidence-that-bolivian-election-results-were-affected-by-irregularities-or-fraud-statistical-analysis-shows

Now there are ongoing riots

I don’t claim to be an expert on this, but just figured we should have a thread and it needed an OP.

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Here’s an article by Mark Weisbrot (the co-director of the CEPR from your first link) laying out the OAS claims and why they aren’t supported by the data

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Based on the clear biases I’ve seen from all reporting so far and my inability to find an impartial and knowledgeable source I trust, I’m going to allow for the possibility that both are true. The coup seems pretty self-evident, but that doesn’t rule out dirty pool from Morales as well.

Morales seems pretty cool, but pulling a Roosevelt with the 4th term isn’t really that cool.

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The right winger who took over in the coup is a TV star. The next generation of political “leaders” will probably be youtubers or instagram celebrities.

It probably doesn’t help me form a solid opinion that I keep confusing the events in Bolivia with the season 2 plot of Jack Ryan.

2024 will be AOC vs Pewpie pew pee or whoever that is.

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My key takeaway from that CEPR PDF is that Bolivia’s election laws are terrible and pretty much guaranteed a crisis.

The latest episode of Chapo has an interview with a woman reporting from Bolivia.

I thought this article was really good, very nuanced

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Nice post Broseph.

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Concur. Quality first post, new person!

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Hope China and Russia can wield a little surreptitious influence in this hemisphere on matters like this presently or in the future.

But not undue influence, so these fledgling systems of government have their autonomy and unique design, while enjoying the might of big brother established state.

Bro = microdaughter

She read me the article (we are driving up to NorCal) and I asked her to post it.

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I am in Colombia right now. There are protests against the right wing shithead in chief here. It has been interesting talking to some of the young people protesting. Definitely gives me more hope for the human race than i have felt in a while. They seemed to all think the media had let them down showing it as violent when it was mostly peaceful. I let them know how much I wished we had people like them here. How we were facing a lot of the same problems they were. It was really interesting and gave me a lot to think about frankly.

Apologies if this isn’t quite the right thread for this but I think there is contagion with all this stuff going on in SA right now.

Also they mentioned how Facebook was blocking/deleting posts related to the protests. Fuck Zuck.

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Just some more evidence that the OAS (most likely a CIA front imo) helped start this coup in Bolivia

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/02/26/bolivia-dismissed-its-october-elections-fraudulent-our-research-found-no-reason-suspect-fraud/

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The press: Bernie Sanders stans for left-wing dictators!
Lefties: looking up from typing on phone A vile slander! We would never stan for left-wing dictators!
Lefties: immediately return to stanning for left-wing dictators

If you click through to the paper linked in the WP piece, you can find this breathtaking chart, reporting on the results of their Monte Carlo simulation of the final vote tally:

image

You have to admire their professionalism in running 1000 random simulations when every single simulation produced the exact same result. It appears that they had to bin the vote counts down to the 0.0005% level to get something that looked like a normal distribution. True data artistry.

lol go get your eyes checked out because you’re seeing things. My comment isn’t stanning for a left wing dictator

Is WaPo stanning for left wing dictators now?

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1269992632526217216?s=21

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