The 2024 Hurricane Season - Helene Heading to FLA Panhandle

Kinda fitting that Idalia looks like it’s going to hit the Vidalia onion area.

If you can stand Florida’s humid summers you should be fine in Vegas.

No real weather extremes. Hot summer (who doesnt nowadays, the last six years, Sacramento has had higher highs each summer than Vegas) and nice winters. No income tax. Gambling/weed options galore. And Clark is like the one part of the state you can count on pretty liberal support

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I’ve thought about this. I love my trips to Vegas, though I admit I’m always glad to get back into the humidity (which I usually hate) after a week in that dry climate. Maybe I can rent for a couple of months to get a better grasp of the city and where I might fit in. It’s a bit hard to get a real understanding when you’re just there for a week trying to gamble your ass off. One thing I’m wondering is how cars endure the heat and dryness if they’re outside all the time. Do most Vegas apartment complexes have any kind of car shelters?

White is a popular exterior car color, as is any lighter-colored interior color. Some people have carports, others will throw up an EZ-Up tent in their driveway for the summer months. I just pre-cool the car whenever possible, like how I used to pre-heat it during New England winters.

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Are the weather services deliberately being conservative with their projections leading up to landfall or are the projections fucked at this point? They had this making landfall as a category 1 storm a few days ago. I’ve noticed the same pattern over and over in recent years, with storms becoming more intense than they expected.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/08/29/idalia-rapid-intensification-hurricanes-climate/

In this case, I remember reading in one of the weather service “discussions” that there were competing factors making the intensity predictions challenging. I believe it was something like upper level wind shear trying to reduce the wind speeds while warm Gulf waters were making the winds stronger. In general though, the very warm water is causing a lot of rapid intensification.

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This storm both slowed down once it got off the Yucatán peninsula and intensified quicker than expected. Even few days ago some meteorologists were saying there was an outside chance this thing could turn into a monster. The gulf is super hot and once upper level wind shear eased up there was nothing to slow down massive growth.

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It could be that projections/models are informed by old data that doesn’t fully account for the warmer climate

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So how many insurances are still offering deals in Florida?

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There is a rapid intensified monster in the Eastern Pacific luckily with no thread to land and there is another monster brewing in the Atlantic where you have to hope it takes a sharp curve to the north east in the next few days.

Interestingly there have been plenty of big storms hitting land in Asia during the last few weeks where you only get slim coverage in our media.

https://twitter.com/US_Stormwatch/status/1716981123329470831?t=oLKqzaMSzb5VHaKAFdigsA&s=19

Jfc. That’s like a 80 mph wind delta mis-forecast.

No way people are going to be to evacuate

i think the models are now wrong. Seeing this trend with every storm. I just assume every storm will be worse than projections.

The forecasters know that hat intensity forecasts are worse than track. They can be forgiven here, we have a century (?) of storms not doing this

Forecasters are wrong so often they’re just background noise to everyone anyway.

models based on the past century might explain why the models seem to keep undershooting intensity.

Helene could be a devastator - now expected to hit as a strong Cat 3, maybe Cat 4 (depending on forecast)

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https://www.politico.com/news/2024/09/26/hurricane-helene-florida-insurance-ron-desantis-00181086

Maybe Floridians will finally realize that climate change + R control has doomed their state. Probably not, but can always dream.

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Thankfully it’s expected to hit the big bend area which isn’t the really populated areas of Florida. I’m a little east of Tampa and we’ve seen some dark clouds but almost no rain or wind.

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Hitting just a little east of where Hurricane Michael landed in 2018, which absolutely fucked up parts of the Panhandle for years. That link shows that in some counties over 100 miles inland lost 100% of power, with many of the outages lasting weeks because the systems were so backwoods. This storm seems to be not nearly as large (yet at least?!) but I’m no hurricane expert.

Map compared to Michael’s path. Purple lines add by me are the expected path for Helene

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