OK I’ve got to do some real work for a while. Anybody should feel free to take over the PA update spreadsheet
I would be very happy if a Trump loss causes then physical pain akin to heroin withdrawal.
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Lol you fucking fish you have a job lol.
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I have to say that I find that people just now discovering the limitations of Nate Silver’s uselessness is amusing. I was baffled by the acclaim he received in 2012 and by the anger he got in 2016. In 2012 the polling favorite won so of course his poll averaging predictions held up. You could have made pretty similarly accurate predictions by just using the RCP averages. Silver’s value, if he has any, is in quantifying the uncertainty that that polling average represents. Which was why his 2016 performance was Good Actually once you get past his disastrous Republican primary punditry. He said that Trump had like a 30% shot! But everyone wants a definitive answer of who is going to win the election, they’re not interested in the only value Silver can actually add, which is quantifying the uncertainty in how likely a polling lead will lead to a win. So it’s just funny, if the polling error of 2016 or 2020 would have happened in 2012, then Nate Silver would have never been a thing. Even if the actual quality of his model had been the same.
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I’m not doing every 75 ballot drop but I’ll update it if I see numbers change in any material way.
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This is why Trump has to be pursued aggressively and legally after we win. The true story of what happened this last 4 years has to be recorded as completely as possible and it has to get super super wide distribution. Making sure it gets that distribution is something that Zuck needs to see to, without being asked, to even get the opportunity to negotiate with the federal government about how drastic the anti trust action is going to be.
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This trend came up in an earlier discussion about recent elections. The media drives lazy narratives about election outcomes so that after the fact the results seem way more definitive than they actually were.
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We all understand probability here. The problem with Nate isn’t his aggregation, it’s his insufferable attitude and idiotic punditry.
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https://twitter.com/mmfa/status/1324149178071572480?s=20
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1324381490797547522?s=20
Yes, you can track it. And there were efforts to get people to cure ballots I think.
I agree this will be a coping tactic for many of them, should trump lose. But there is a sizable faction of them that are extremely angry, a little crazy, and very armed. I am really concerned, especially in my area. There are some fucking nutjobs and they’re losing their shit.
Case in point - I just had to report a threat of violence on fb from my area. Made in a public forum, with 15 likes or something.
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And you accuse Trumpers of projection!
I kid, I kid.
This might actually explain the pace of the count some. If they are challenging stuff super super aggressively and there’s a rote process that has to be followed for the challenges… yeah they could slow it down to a crawl.
I wasn’t really talking about people here. Just how his “predictions” are received by the general public.
https://twitter.com/ElieNYC/status/1324381812215422980
maybe someone will eventually learn this lesson that we kept talking about every time Biden went to Ohio and Iowa
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Oh good. MAGA chuds can get closer and closer. What could possibly go wrong.
https://twitter.com/phillyinquirer/status/1324374707978776577?s=21
It’s putting Donald Trump on more tilt, enjoy it.
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