The 2020 Election: Delaying the Inevitable

Those tweets are the most shook I’ve been in 2 weeks. Hopefully this is like when Biden’s campaign manager said they have the national polls basically tied even though Biden’s average has been like +10 for months.

Can’t they just sell his debt as junk bonds? I would buy some for 1c on the $.

Wtf are those numbers? -62% of what? I’m so confused.

Election Day voters.

Well, if it’s any reassurance Trump has drifted out from 2.5 to 3.0 at Betfair.

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A lot of the info we saw in polling was stuff like Republicans plan to vote on Eday 70%-30% vs Dems voting early like 75-25%, so if those numbers are accurate, the election is likely lost. I sorta doubt they are correct though (if they are waaf)

This makes zero sense. Record turnout is good for trump?!??!? I don’t buy that at all.

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“Of the people who vote today, if x% of them vote for Trump he will win.”

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It’s entirely possible we were wrong all along about turnout and really it just meant white men with no education decided to vote because they hate liberals so much, while busy working people still didn’t have time to vote.

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I don’t think Trump gets 60+% of E-day vote in MI, WI or AZ. Probably not 59% in PA.

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NC was dead even, 65% of registered Dems and Reps voted early. It’s total fiction that there’s this big swath of Trump voters still out there, at least here.

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…so we go into gameday on a despair cycle?

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I have no beef with you personally but your incessant negativity is a real bummer and seems misplaced

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Except there is literally zero evidence for this.

People are freaking because an estimate of pre Election Day voters and an estimate of Election Day voters combined with a need to assume a massive turnout is good for trump suggests we lost?

I don’t think my blood pressure is going to move on that one.

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I’m disappointed in East Philly!

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Just as a random sample, the last A-rated PA poll had Election Day voters favoring trump 59/36. I’m not checking MI or WI because if we’re sweating those, WAAF.

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https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1323665028642385920?s=21

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Record turnout in mail in voting favors Dems. Record turnout in in-person voting possibly favors GOP based on polling.

My baseline assumption coming into today was that Trump will be up 15-20% or possibly more in ballots cast on Election Day in PA, and Biden will get it all back in early/mail in votes.

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BREAKING

https://twitter.com/joeflex73/status/1323665268338556928

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If you know who Biden’s campaign manager is you’re almost certainly lying