MI/WI/PA haven’t updated in some time. I would guess that the rest of the vote is the very slow to count mail vote. We’re not going to know the President for some time, but Biden still seems to be improving on Clinton’s margins in counties that are fully counted, so it still looks like a Biden win to me if all the votes are counted.
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No. Trump will lose the popular by more than he did against Hillary.
Sitting in my buddy’s backyard by the fire, a fox just ran through the neighbor’s yard. I told him it’s the mascot for 538 and yelled “Fuck you Nate Silver!!!” at the fox.
I’m sure the neighbors think I’m a very sane person.
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How about we get it out of the country.
(Or better yet, the northeast and Pacific states out of the country)
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Um, I know exactly what the server load is. I’ve been monitoring it nonstop for the past 7 hours.
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NY Times has NC and Georgia at 84% and 85% for Trump now. Seems like there’s some equity there.
Probably requires both GA runoffs.
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That had to have been a manual updating of the model. Which isn’t to say it’s wrong, just there weren’t any votes that dropped there.
seems pretty sane to me tbh
CNN just reported that there are basically a shit ton of recieved uncounted mail in ballots in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh to be counted. Also, lets not forget that even in the red counties, the mail in vote is likely good for the dems. The reason we know this? Because tonight in states that count mail ballots first, the dems have led. The dems started off leading fucking Idaho FFS. Going into tonight I saw posted that Trump could be up 16 fucking points in PA and still be a dog. He’s not up 16 points in PA right now.
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Reddit (here https://old.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/jnpr1b/discussion_thread_2020_general_election_part_8/?sort=top) is gleefully spamming away that mail ins in rust belt still need to be counted so yeah IDK. Doesn’t feel over over but wow fuck this country either way. Even if Joe somehow pulls it out nothing happens without the senate right?
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If the model has swung that much for those two states, maybe they are off in what they think is still out there. Yes, I know it’s a slim chance, but one can dream.
Drunk depressed thoughts that are completely too much information –
When we came here 3 years ago the official reason is my wife’s post-doc, but the real reason was we wanted to give our son a chance to live somewhere else than Israel. Our first year in NC sucked. My wife’s lab was terrible, I couldn’t find anyone to talk to really. We came from a huge city into a cute town but nothing we really got into. After a year she couldn’t take her UNC lab anymore and we moved to UCDavis.
My son barely speaks Hebrew. He knows a few words but that’s about it. He met his grandparents twice in his life. We haven’t been home in more than two years. The official goal is still to get a paper published and open a lab in Israel, but I always kept that thought that maybe we can make it here and he won’t have to grow up in the pressure cooker that is Israel.
Now all I can think about is why the fuck did we put ourselves through this. Either way, I’m done with that dream. If I’m gonna live under a fascist regime, at least I want my family to be with me, to speak my language and not have to explain my Starbucks order 6 times until they understand what I’m saying.
To be honest, having any type of conversation with people here was helpful, so thanks for that.
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Wait? Did you actually think that was going to happen?
Nate’s been tweeting that there are at least some data issues.
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Someone posted a tweet from one of the Nates up thread that said NC had an error that was worth about 35k votes. Maybe that had something to do with it.
edit: damnit jj
This is going exactly how we all said it would a month ago before all the lol Biden +11 poals.
Trump is going to be “ahead” tonight, Biden will pull ahead as the mail in votes are counted.
No need to panic. Yet.
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What’s going on with the Michigan senate race? It looks like Peters is getting throttled.
A lot of good can be done in the immediate future wrt covid in the executive, but your larger point is taken.
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