LoL. No. All of Biden’s paths lead through ACB. Those are all Trump win paths.
If the increase in turnout was largely breaking for Biden, then the margin would decrease. It seems like the increase in turnout was largely breakeven, slightly preferring Trump. The fact that the new voters like Trump less than the existing voters do doesn’t change the fact that they vote more for Trump.
Adding 20k votes that go 55-45 Trump in a 65-35 Trump county doesn’t help Biden.
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Actually expect Trump to declare himself the winner at midnight. Time to stop counting. Time’s up.
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Red unless Biden sweeps the midwest w/ a close Ohio
Iowa could be live here
cow manure, ethanol, and racism, in no particular order
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I mean yea, but every state has followed the same pattern. The pattern says no.
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PA just flipped blue by DDHQ. Huge shift. Something just must have dumped, Biden up by 300k votes in PA now.
Edit: Jesus wtf is happennning, Decision desk just undid it.
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I’m out. Going to try to sleep through the night. I can’t stomach a Trump speech. I can’t stomach any of this. Hoping we run perfect the rest of the way.
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was 1.2 about 45 minutes ago.
it’s red for me, bruv
red here
Same
Red mirage yes.
Relax. Uh, no.
Right but an increased margin is what we expect in a county that went for Trump. Like if Trump won a county by 10% and the turnout increase was neutral in terms of percentages, we’d expect all the extra turnout to break for Trump by 10 points. The fact that it’s breaking less than that for him - substantially less - suggests that the extra turnout is more Dem-shifted than existing voters. You can’t make up the margin like that in pro-Trump counties, but you can in pro-Dem counties. Like if the new voters in these counties went Trump +2 instead of Trump +10, presumably they’ll go Biden +18 in a county that was previously Biden +10.
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I don’t get how you know Biden loses Wisconsin/Michigan?
Biden hasn’t massively underperformed the polls.
He is just losing all the states they said he was a 2% favorite in. So if it is a 5% flip… he still wins those states (MI/WI/PA/MN) ?
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It’ sthe fucking website, it had biden up to 1.9 million votes and then ropped him to 1.2 million i have no idea what is happening. same happenned to Wisconsin. Both back to red.