Matthew Berry has the Fantasy Life app which claims to have the fastest alerts, never tried it myself but Berry is a solid dude so get it.
Gonna be the second time this year I lose to someone getting a zero from their QB…
Yahoo’s ff app sends alerts
Been running so bad all season.
Is there a reason why my DFS “B” team consistently seems to outperform my DFS “A” team? Seems like it happens more than half the time.
Tournaments?
Yeah…GPP’s. I think maybe I’m a little more reckless I guess with my second team, which seems to work out better.
It’s probably because your A team is full of popular plays. Last week Taysom was almost 70% owned in the million. When he gets there you don’t really gain much because you’re still competing with 70% of the field in an event that only pays out about top 20% to 25%. If you have another popular player that’s 50%, it won’t even cut the remaining field in half because the joint ownership of the popular plays isn’t independent due to people dumping their cash lineups or top X optimal csv files in.
What I typically do is generate the top 2,500 to 10,000 optimals and sort by projection, then go through and cherry pick ones with lower ownership that are still within striking distance of the top projected. For example, if the top lineup is projected to score 140, then a 128 could be viable, whereas a 102 would be bad. I would still advocate your method of building an A and B (and C, D, E, etc.) portfolio of lineups that are all solid without too much overlap and had a ton of success with that in the past. And yeah, it would usually be my D or E lineup that surprised me and crushed tournaments, but that’s exactly the point.
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You clearly drill down a lot deeper than I do. I don’t play too much money, but it would be nice to bink a gpp for a change. I’m generally plunking down about 2/3 of my buyins on my “A” team and 1/3 on my second unit. For today, I’m just going to accept that Mahomes, Hill, Kelce stack should have been on my “A” team. That’s right.
I really need NBA to begin soon because fantasy football is not my forte it appears. I even managed to bubble the $101 milly maker because of the final Mahomes to Tyreek pass.
Also 70% was way too low for Taysom assuming you’re talking about the FD milly maker where he was min priced TE.
No way he had way more downside than upside.
at TE without Kelce and Waller on the slate? His floor was higher than the median of pretty much all TE on the slate. That wasn’t like ‘chalk’ play, that was just a bug in the system.
I’m sure that if you take the top 20 max entry pros they all had over 70% Taysom that day.
It’s not a cash game.
sure but his ceiling was miles ahead of all TE on that slate.
His ceiling literally doesn’t matter if everyone has him, but I don’t even think it’s true. Have you seen Mark Andrews’ fantasy scores over past 2 seasons? What is Hill’s ceiling as a 1st-time starter with a competent backup waiting to take over?
The Fantasy Life app is the best alert app I have. It’s quick.
Vs the Falcons? Probably ~35 dk points. I don’t remember fd scoring off the top of my head.
Andrews basically had his best game of the season and finished 6 points behind Hill and cost $2500 more.
In fact, Taysom Hill’s actual game last week had more fanduel points than Andrews career high. So even if you consider that game as Taysom’s ceiling (which i don’t see any reason to do so), it was higher than anything Andrews had ever produced and he was $4500.
For those who are interested in DFS -
Awesemo.com which is a very good training site. Personally I like their stuff for MLB/NBA better than NFL but I also suck at fantasy football.
Either way they have cyber monday sale thingy. Full weekly access for $1.
Just cancel it after you buy it cause it renews for like $65 but obviously very much worth it for a single buck.
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It just sounds like hindsight bias to me. Derek Carr was great value against ATL this week and ate dirt, and it was an even better matchup for him as an air-threat-only QB. Average from multiple sites had him on about 19 Fanduel points and his actual score was [checks box score] 1.6 (lol). He’s also way more of a known quantity than Taysom and doesn’t have the same risk of getting pulled early if he looks like a dumpster fire.
The other problem with (high and low salary) high-owned players is it pushes optimizers onto a lot of the same types of builds. So if you’re going to use a 70% player, you have to think really hard about controlling ownership in the rest of the lineup if you’re trying to win a tournament with over 500,000 entries.
Again, this is all stemming from the single most important factor in tournaments which is you really need to win 1st place in these ultra-steep structures. So if it’s a tournament with 500 players, it still seems really possible to me if you have a 70% owned guy. With 500,000, if he gets there you are still competing with 350,000 lineups and have 1 less spot to differentiate.
0-11 and losing spectacularly. I’ve never had a team perform this badly in all my years, hands down.
What does Dirk Carr actual performance has to do with his ceiling, which is what you asked about. Taysom floor is clearly way higher than Carr due to his rushing abilities.
Again, I haven’t checked it myself but i’m willing to wager that almost all the best pros were about 70% on Taysom that week. You’re completely correct in general, just not on that specific and extremely unlikely scenario that happened with Hill.
The ceiling alone doesn’t matter that much: what I’m saying is you need to consider the entire distribution and just simulate scenarios out of that. For Hill we have very little data because Tebow 2.0 gadget play specialist isn’t the same as being an NFL starter, so his distribution has to be heavily weighted to the very bottom tier QBs. That’s about what the models I saw had projected, and those same models had Carr about 5 points better in the same matchup.
There is no way this is true to any significant degree. It’s one of the biggest myths in fantasy that there are substantially different high floor and high ceiling players. I parsed that data for all sports and it’s mostly untrue once you center the distributions and account for opportunity / injuries. Carr’s distribution was centered about 5 points higher which means you’d have to make wild adjustments to the distributions in order for your statement true. Both of them are turnover machines which is where the truly awful scores come from.
I have no idea what this is supposed to prove but it seems especially bad to me if true. That tournament accounts for such a tiny fraction of their total action where they already have over six figures worth of Hill presumably, and they need to fade over 500,000 donks to ship. They should be super light on chalk and playing it as a black swan hedge tournament, the same way I’d approach a quarter arcade.
It isn’t that unlikely and has happened multiple times before. I remember slates where they actually messed up entering the prices. Like they had a $5900 starting RB or something that was $590. A few years ago there was a rosterable WR that started at QB (Joe Webb iirc). My point is that anytime people say there’s a “free square” in huge GPPs your alarm bells should be going off. There are no free squares when half of the money goes to the top 5 spots.