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Finished in 3rd despite being 9th in points.
Likely going to get drubbed in the playoffs as my RBs are CMC, Ekeler (who is now questionable), DJ (pozzed), Gaskin (pozzed), Gallman, and Moss. Picked up DeAndre Washington. Anyone got any suggestions for deep sleepers (12 team league) that have a chance to contribute this week?
is Jeff Wilson available?
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He is. Going to put in waiver claim now. Didn’t notice that Mostert might miss time.
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If yahoo, Bowden of Dolphins is RB eligible. If you’re really worried about Ekeler-- I wouldn’t be-- handcuff him with Ballage, the likely beneficiary of an injury. Biggest worry about that game is Ekeler getting a light load due to quick turnaround, but they gave him 75 carries his first game back so I doubt it.
Jeff Wilson should be your #1 waiver claim. He might feast. He’s going to get 10+ carries and likely goalline opportunities against the Cowboys even if Mostert plays.
Ekeler will be fine and he’s going to destroy the Raiders because I’m playing against him.
Gus Bus if he’s available.
Sony Michel and Ito Smith deeeeeeeep sleepers.
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One team was 1-6, went on a 6 game winning streak to get to 4th. Had the second highest score week 14.
Lost to the highest score and lost my playoff spot.
Only made playoffs in 2 of 5 leagues. Terrible run bad all season with injuries.
Ok, UPers. I need some help with my team this week (semi-finals).
My QB roster is currently:
- Matt Ryan
- Taysom Hill
Available free agents:
- Jalen Hurts
- Derek Carr
- Baker Mayfield
- Teddy Bridgewater
- Daniel Jones
What do I do?
Hill, Hurts, Carr, Teddy in that order assuming Yahoo scoring and no other information. Who does your opponent have?
Who plays the worst defense?
If Julio Jones comes back, I’d go with Ryan.
The Ryan/Ridley combo is pretty solid too
Out of the remainder Hurts is best due to being a dual threat
Seems fine? With Taysom you have a game stack on the T2 highest total of the week with a slight home dog. If Saints can’t compete then that’s a bad game script for you, but KC has been awful against the rush and a Taysom+Kamara stack locks in most of those points with Kelce running it back. KC is good in coverage so big points are less likely to come via the air. I guess there’s also a miniscule chance Brees plays.
If you want to diversify, naked Carr tonight on the highest game total of the week looks viable against your opponent’s Keenan (assuming he plays): if it’s a shootout where Keenan goes off, then the conditional expectation of Carr is higher (and vice versa). The bad game script there is Raiders RBs scooping the points against LAC’s terrible rush defense and Keenan playing from behind–exactly what happened in Week 9.
In addition, LAC is good in coverage with @MichaelDavis (+) on one side against Agholor (-), Chris Harris (+) in the slot against Renfrow (-), and Ruggs is out putting [?] on the other side. That’s a bad setup for LV across the board. Of course, most of the balls are going to all-world stud Darren Waller so it’s not clear how much it matters. LAC has an above-average pass rush and LV above-average protection so maybe a wash, although my eye test on Carr is he holds the ball way too long and is susceptible to disaster games b/c of it. I’d keep an eye on Ekeler and Mike Williams who are questionable: both starting downgrades Keenan but both out upgrades him bigly and presents a problem for you. Another twist here is LV fired their defensive coordinator after last week’s game so I’m expecting them to be a fire drill on defense.
Similar concept applies to Hurts vs Kyler but that’s a considerably worse matchup with PHI on a low total getting 6 points. Granted, he torched a top 3 defense last week on the ground ¯\(ツ)/¯.
Teddy has the same problem against GB secondary who has the elite Jaire Alexander to lock up whoever they think is the #1 (Moore or Anderson) but they are also bad vs the rush. Baker has a minus matchup against Giants D and is in a knife edge spot against your opponent’s Chubb, i.e., if Chubb scoops the points you are toast and I see no reason to take a bad gamble here. Matt Ryan arguably has a decent setup as a home dog against a team that is stronger against the rush than the pass, but he’s been pretty abysmal and not someone I’d be looking to start based on what the models say. Daniel Jones is questionable with an ankle injury which probably kills a lot of his rushing value.
Finally, even if you read all of these tea leaves correctly, it’s probably only worth a couple fantasy points in expectation.
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I have a few decisions to make:
QB: Herbert or Hurts
WR/TE: Claypool or Agholor or Ebron
Playing Metcalf and DJ Moore at WR already and Andrews at TE
RB: I have Henry and Gibson but now Gibson looks like a probably out so I’ll need to use Damien Harris or Zach Moss (or someone from FA if there is a sleeper)
What say UP?
That is an excellent review.
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Herbert has been bad when Ekeler plays, but Raiders defense is a dumpster fire. Hurts has a tough matchup. The models have them pretty close aorn should probably just go with your gut. Ekeler is expected to play while Keenan and Mike Williams are not looking good:
The Chargers “are concerned they won’t have” Allen (hamstring) for Thursday night’s game against the Raiders, and if they do, he’s likely to be limited, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.
The same report notes that Mike Williams (back) is not expected to play
If it’s Ekeler in and Keenan / MWill both out I’d be looking elsewhere. If Keenan plays limited it’s still rough but probably adds enough decoy for Guyton/Johnson.
These are all bad options but the answer is definitely not Ebron. Agholor has a tough matchup but he claws some of that equity back with Ruggs out. Claypool is in a crowded space for targets now that Washington is more in the mix, and he’s getting less than 2/3rds of the snaps (about the same % as Agholor and Ebron). Has a favorable matchup and could get there on one deep ball, but I also think PIT has some blowout risk.
Snap % (Targets) last 4 games reverse order:
Agholor 66 (9) 67 (11) 66 (6) 75 (9)
Claypool 67 (6) 44 (4) 63 (9) 63 (8)
My advice is to buy a Magic 8 Ball and pray.
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@spidercrab you should be ready for this scenario
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Herbert
Claypool
Who’s on waivers for RB?
Right, this is my concern - that Hill isn’t going to play a full game. Similar concern for Hurts. So I feel like I’m going to end up playing Ryan because the likelihood of him playing the full game is substantially higher than it is for Hill or a potentially acquired Hurts. I’m willing to trade off some EV for lower variance.
i mean either Brees is starting or he’s not playing. There’s no scenario where you don’t know that before tip-off.
i also don’t see a real scenario that Hurts is subbed, especially after his performance vs the Saints.
Neither concerns are really valid imo. You just need a backup plan if Brees starts.