There were like 300 users at that time, so no.
oh i see. didn’t know that.
so in general, i don’t know anything. things go brrr. or they don’t.
mbl guy who is probably #6 is on the weekly stream i watch. a random nerd who got into it in august and never sold a card.
I dont really want to prop bet, but the implied market cap of Topshots is just outrageous. I dont see how anything /15000 holds any value over time. If that Ish Smith is $20, then there is a $300,000 market for just that card. Add it up for each card and then new cards come and extrapolate that this can be added for other sports and compare it to the size of the existing sports collectibles market. This has been a sick moneymaking opportunity, it for sure could go higher next, and I actually think the idea here is cool long-term, but really dont see a path to anywhere but 90%+ lower valuations across the board in 6-12 months.
The next issue is getting money out. Less than 9% of the user base is approved and the withdrawal team consists of five people headed by the head of product moonlighting from his day job. They’re running a financial exchange with the infrastructure of a small consumer goods company. The money infusion should help, but they are talking up UFC now and it is lol to launch another product here without actually paying the existing customers.
Im not involved here, although I regret missing how hot it would get and not getting in a couple of weeks ago. Hopefully no one here ends up as a bagholder.
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If I’m one of those people with tens of millions worth of cards, I would just start gradually selling them to try to bank as much of that value as possible.
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I sold for even less but it wasn’t to call top and cash out a steak dinner, it was to load up on cheap moments I thought were more undervalued. In hindsight, holding $50 Luka isn’t better than buying all of the cheap garbage aorn. Also, we both sold thinking circulation was unlimited (as claimed) following a 50k pack drop that could not meet demand. Their response to that was to make every card LE and not release any more packs.
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why?
i get why ish smith 15k common card won’t have a 300k market, i agree with this. But why would series 1 rare cards have no path to keeping value (let alone losing 90% of it).
Reading more to look into this and I might be wrong. It sounds like the goal is to introduce as many new players to S2 as possible, but there will be repeats as well.
I think this is a rational analysis of the situation. I just don’t think rationality is really a controlling factor with this or any of the other crypto/meme stonk/wsb situations we find ourselves in. There are currently 63 different cryptocurrencies with a 1B+ market cap. That doesn’t make sense either but if you got in early on literally any of them you made a zillion dollars.
I think people, myself included, are looking at this as a high risk/high reward gamble and playing with very small amounts of money. I would need my average moment price to fall below $10 currently for me to actually be down at this and I have quite a few valuable to semi-valuable moments. Is that possible? Sure it is. But the market would have to collapse literally 90% from here for me to get to my breakeven point. Now if you are buying tens of thousands of moments at yesterdays peak? Ya, you might be in trouble.
As someone who routinely bets thousands of dollars on sports pumping a small amount of money into this does not seem very risky. Besides that the marketplace is extremely fun. If I end up breaking even or losing money I won’t have derived zero utility from it.
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we need MP back up so i won’t have to click on “about the mods” threads.
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That is funny. I hadn’t dared peek in there for weeks but did today out of boredom as well. What a mess.
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Sorry, I didnt mean to come across badmouthing people in here or the idea of playing topshots. Just easy to get caught up in the euphoria, but everything you said is of course reasonable. I just dont see why this doesnt directionally go like cryptokitties did. Fascinating to watch though.
About half this thread got in when there were very few cards over $20 and were having a lot of fun. Think that half will stick around even if stuff drops like 80%, we’ll be here in a year for new rookies. The other half who don’t really care for nba and want to make a quick $, gl to them.
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Same here.
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I dont think the scarcity is quite what it seems and I think the valuations vs. expensive physical memorabilia is out of whack. I also have a broader view that we are in the late innings of a long-running asset value and think these way underperform on the downside. I dont see how buying a limited run LeBron for 200K is going to hold value, never mind appreciate. I also think the friction of getting funds off is going to become increasingly problematic, particularly if we hit a crypto downturn.
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