So I don’t know about you guys but I am absolutely mind blown by how well this community covered this entire campaign. This makes quite a bit of sense given the fact that we are pretty much core members of the poker diaspora and the poker diaspora has proven to be a pretty rich fishery talent wise since BF.
I’ve got a few takeaways from this election that I’m still working on, but one of them is that the people on this forum are not stupider than the people running Democratic Party campaigns. We’re going to find out when this is all over that they raised vastly more money than the GOP and got outspent on digital. That’s political malpractice that there isn’t one person on this board stupid enough to make.
Elizabeth Warren ran a pretty competitive campaign considering Elizabeth Warren, and I’m pretty convinced that the biggest reason it went as well as it did is that her staff was not from the usual politics talent pool.
We need to get into this game for the good of the country. Our side is desperately lacking competence at every level. These people need people who actually understand how to make decisions in a scientific way. We need to find a way in, and then once one of us is in they need to smuggle everyone else in. We can do to politics what we did to poker and just ruin if for the old guard entirely.
I thought the part of the Discord channel I was on for last night had a lot of really smart takes. Not that it is shocking but at times it was like listening to a good politics podcast.
It wasn’t just being outspent on digital, when I did see D ads on YouTube it was just Chuck Schumer or whoever speaking in a boring voice, I think asking for more money but I wasn’t really listening tbh.
When I saw R ads it was super stimulating shit about how Ds were going to get me killed or ruin my life or how Biden was the one who fucked over black people hard and Trump helped them, etc.
I seriously don’t think anyone over the age of 60 has any business making any tactical decisions for any of these campaigns. TV advertising is basically worthless unless it’s for a sporting event. Facebook is like spending money on mind control. They think Facebook is a novelty and resent it for taking away the commish they probably get paid on TV spend. These guys probably grifted us out of multiple house seats and blocked a landslide.
We had enough money to live in the deplorables FB feeds. These results surprised me because I thought we were in their FB feeds. I thought we were pushing RVAT videos on them. I can’t think of any explanation for the increased turnout with Trump voters other than digital dominance… for the second time in a row.
The Democratic Party campaign career track… yeah we need to burn that whole structure down. It’s visibly rotting on the outside now.
The biggest political mastermind in the US, perhaps the most powerful person over the last dozen years, who will leave a legacy that will span generations, is 78 years old.
Great minds don’t age like normies. Very few of us will ever be as good at anything as Mitch McConnell is at politics. At the same time the great man theory of politics is bullshit. Almost all of you are better at poker than me, but if we play HUNL you’re not going to beat me for more than 2-3 bb/100 because I’m not complete garbage. You’ll win, but slowly. If I start with a large lead in chips I will probably end up with your stack if I run normal. If you play a complete fish you’ll win the max and lose the minimum to an absurd degree and it’ll make you look really good. Show me some general who did borderline magical things and I’ll show you someone whose enemies were morons, or someone whose armies were not close to equal in quality. 99% of what makes the great great is that they make very few mistakes and they prepare for what’s coming well.
The solution to Mitch is to block his options. We need a general Grant. Cold, competent, and willing to fight a war of attrition. What we have now is Burnside and McClellan.
This isn’t about that. This is about knowing what options are available and having a modern understanding of decision making. The people on this board think about decision making in a very unique and powerful way. That’s the secret sauce.
I would push digital pretty deep into diminishing returns before I bought my first TV ad. I know this because I’m in my mid 30’s and one of my buddies is a higher end marketing consultant (and another 2p2 guy I’m not going to name) and he’s gotten paid 300/hr to explain this to people’s bosses so that they can cover themselves. It never backfires, everyone always gets promoted. You can cut your TV spend way back and move half of it to digital and get better results.
That’s just common knowledge to the people on this board though basically. We can figure out how to make 55 year olds think what we want them to think. That’s just a problem to be solved.
Haven’t thought about this much, but wonder if there is a room for a non-profit or PAC that helps people who are inclined to support progressive policies make the most effective use of their donations instead of lighting money on fire donating to Amy McGrath.
That’s a solid application of what I’m getting at for sure. It’s also an amazing way to infiltrate from there controlling where a meaningful amount of money goes. We don’t move the selection process or anything, but they’ll contact us to try to find out how they can get a better rating and that’s a crazy warm sales opportunity.
I have thought about this a lot as well. We should be in the game, and we would be very good at it. At the intersection of digital, messaging, and polling/modeling. If a few others want to go for it, I’m seriously interested.
I’m interested in the first viable opportunity honestly. I have a lot of free time on my hands.
This is why I didn’t make any concrete plans for what I’d do once I got on Adderall. I knew the opportunities I spotted on it would be better than the ones off it.
I’m looking at this spot and I think the need is really large and the supply is really low.
I assumed they were lol. Like they, yet again, found a way to break my brain with their incompetence. I genuinely thought 2016 was as bad as it would ever get. What the fuck happened to Obama’s people?
Please tell me I’m not going to look up Biden’s crew and find out they are his friends from Delaware and DC.
But the way to do this isn’t to start a firm and stroll up to Nancy and Chuck and convince them. It’s to partner up with people already doing it to some degree, like the Justice Dems, and primary the fuck out of the establishment from sea to shining sea.