So are cases really leveling out a bit in some of the hardest hit places or are they just rubbing up against their testing caps?
I think real leveling out is possible. It’s entirely plausible significant social distancing has pushed R0 to 1.
The problem, and the argument the hammer and dance crowd is making, is that an R0 of 1 doesn’t do anything besides stop the clock. If we’re incurring severe economic damage to get there, and our medical system is ~overwhelmed once we get there, and a disaster looms once we reopen everything, we’re still pretty much screwed.
But it’s definitely better news than it would be if social distancing weren’t causing cases to level off.
2 Likes
It’s been almost two weeks since we started locking down in NY, so I’d be cautiously optimistic. With that said, it’s about to explode nationwide in all the red states like Florida with dumbass governors, so expect the nationwide pace to pick right back up again.
1 Like
Let’s say all “shelter in place” orders were removed. To what extent do you think the economic damages would lessened? How many restaurants and theaters would open, how much travel would take place, how many sports would proceed, how many schools would reopen? Perhaps some, but I suspect the economic damage would not be mitigated much.
Stopping or slowing the clock likely is fairly significant. During the additional time health official and doctors and hospitals will develop new procedures, testing capacity will continue to increase, understanding will be enhanced, and likely some new treatments and protocols will be developed. It’s not unlikely that it would be significantly preferable to come down with the virus in 2 months compared to today.
1 Like
From WaPo:
Twitter deletes post by Brazil’s president for violating its coronavirus rules
RIO DE JANEIRO — Twitter removed two posts by Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro Sunday night in a rare instance of the social media giant censuring an elected world leader for a rules violation.
Bolsonaro tweeted two videos that showed him flouting the advice of his own health officials, hailing the treatment of an unvetted drug to treat the coronavirus, gathering small crowds in the capital, Brasilia, and listening to complaints by locals that the churches should be reopened and people should be out working.
In a statement, Twitter said it is now removing content that it says undercuts public health information.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/03/30/coronavirus-latest-news/
Hope Trump won’t be far behind next time he spouts BS.
2 Likes
I think simplicitus’ response is good. It will be best if for nothing else, limiting numbers until a vaccine or better treatment. Also, seems likely to me that immunity/R0 is not all or nothing, depends on viral loads and spreading it out in and of itself means fewer infections.
But, in support of what you say, some of the cities that did such a good job in 1918, like St. Louis and San Francisco, were hit hard in the third wave in 1919.
Was my thought too. I know it is only one company but I suspect we will not see any human trials before then which means a vaccine is not in the cards forever at this point. Something else needs to turn the tide.
I am not sure why every resource in the world that can contribute to making tests is not being used for that purpose now, though, makes no sense.
Well, who’s in charge of the response?
[I realize that the US isn’t the world, and I suspect many nations and companies are gearing up or have geared up their efforts significantly. We just don’t hear about everything day to day.]
1 Like
There are human trials for a vaccine going on right now.
3 Likes
Twitter deleting a few of Trump’s tweets would help him. A ban might hurt, but the media can’t not bend over for him. He could live stream 24/7 and take over CNN.
Agreed but there should be a global combined effort because different countries have different resources.
I realize this is what adults would do and the world is run by children.
2 Likes
Agree completely. Definitely not arguing for reopening right now or anytime soon. Wuhan-style lockdown was probably preferable 1-2 weeks ago. Now, I’m not really sure what the best course is.
Won’t be long now…
1 Like
Costco update. Ordered $250 for “same day” delivery to restock supplies. The earliest delivery window was for Saturday, April 4. They had most things in stock but were out of 10lb bags of sugar, “normal” tomatoes (had the small ones), canned pineapple, rice, and their selection of canned goods seemed limited (no ravioli, and only chicken noodle soup from Campbells.)
Read a tweet saying that food supply is more or less fine, but some packaging (often sourced overseas) may start to run short at end of April because there has been shift to more packaged foods as people are eating at home more.
Damn you and your facts that get in the way of jman220 inciting mass hysteria.
1 Like
Watch Trump turn that one down or bog down the FDA approval because he already publicly endorsed the Johnson and Johnson vaccine
Your hard on for jman is getting old.
3 Likes
CNN showing footage from a hospital in Brooklyn that looks similar to what we have seen in Italy
1 Like