Big problem is hospitals are really often fully loaded without anything unusual happening. We have less than a quarter as many hospital beds per person as Japan.
Right. But the point is that there are two components to what looks like a higher death rate - 1) the numerator - more people are dying than would otherwise due to not getting ventilators and care, 2) the denominator - only super sick people even showing up at the hospital and getting added to the statistics.
As time goes by in Italy and everyone knows the hospital situation, presumably people are getting more and more reluctant to go to the hospital. Some may be even just choosing to die at home among loved ones instead of in a hospital with no visitors and they know they can’t even get a ventilator anyway.
I’m just saying it’s hard to tease out how much of a staggeringly high death rate is due to the numerator vs. the denominator.
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We used to eat that stuff during the holidays, It isn’t bad, super dense and heavy but it isn’t the worst canned food I’ve had.
Just for the record if I heart something like this it means I’m sending out good thoughts, not that I love what happened. I assume everyone knows that by now.
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1 in 7 of tested cases worldwide require hospitalization. 50% of those require ICU.
I’m only stating numbers of deaths. That’s all that matters really. Suspect Italy (~67m) are not adding other deaths in to the COVID-19 total. You can do the math from there
This sounds like another one of the sweet, efficient outcomes of a well-oiled capitalist machine state. We’re already seeing some of the state-of-the-art pieces this super lathe can cut including just-in-time mobile sea hospitals, gig economy healthcare workers, and ventilators that could win at Le Mans. And when the gears really start turning we’ll have diagnostic testing throughput like the world has never seen and thirty billion melt-blown fabric masks storming the shores on a slow boat from China.
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For sure. I was just responding to the 9% death rate statement by pointing out that death rate isn’t really that useful because the sample group keeps changing.
Trump - If only China told us earlier. USA#1 most prepared. No one saw it coming :)
I’m hoping the Imperial College extrapolations are more accurate:
This Assisted Living Facility thing is why massive testing is so important imo. People who work in these places need to know if anyone in their household is positive.
I posted something earlier from a chiefsplanet poster who’s brother is pretty sure he has it, but he cant get tested. And his fiancee is still going to work as a hair stylist in an old folks home. Is that irresponsible? Probably. But the brother is laid off now and the family is desperate. If they knew he had it and she could get tested you have to think they wouldn’t be as tempted to risk it.
]Some of you know my mothers situation. Nurse Practitioner at Menorah, came down with classic CV symptoms a couple days after the first JOCO patient was diagnosed, but the state refused to test her due to her having not “been in contact with someone infected or traveled internationally.”
She is still self-quarantining and, though feeling much better, has not fully recovered.
The night before she got sick, she stayed at my brothers house.
He, his fiancée, and both of their kids now have a 100+ Fever and a dry cough.
My brother refuses to go to the doctor, saying it’s just the flu and they’ll ride it out. He doesn’t make much money and is concerned about the costs associated with going in.
This is why our system is ****ing broken. This is why we won’t contain this thing until it runs its course. People fear our expensive as **** healthcare system more than they utilize it.
I’ve tried to get the kid to go in and get tested. He isn’t budging.
I don’t want to live on this planet anymore.
Also, Menorah has asked my mom to not “say anything about this, as they don’t want to scare off the public.”
So, ya know, **** Menorah.
Furthermore, his fiancée owns a hair salon in an assisted living community. It’s not my brother and his family I’m worried about. It’s our grandparents, the elderly she works with, etc.
They will not self quarantine unless someone tells them they have to. They will lose their house if they do that.
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Let me know when they update the report which is old at 3+ days
It’s a simple equation - are you prepared, if not this expect this many deaths (Italy) in a small population. How many can you admit to hospital (or MASH tents as US plan for the lucky 1,000?) Who do you save? Everyone wants the best numbers - some will fudge them
I’m not sure it matters that it’s 3+ days old? I mean using the numbers from this chart can easily explain the deaths we are seeing if the milder cases are staying at home and not being tested, which seems likely in very hard hit areas.
But everything is in a fog of war right now and we won’t really know for sure. The CFR will certainly go up higher than the numbers in that chart when the ICU are overrun. But that shouldn’t mean anything to the data in the chart about the percent actually requiring hospitalization, which is significantly less than 1 in 7.
Edit: just saw your edit and agree with you.
Escape is quite a different term. No country affected by this is getting out unscathed but some are obviously going to have it worse than others.
On Thursday in the CR, there were 63 people (of 833 diagnosed) hospitalized. Given that percentage and the number of cases now, there are probably 75 now with only a handful in serious condition.
Of course, the virus didn’t hit here until March 1st, 9 days after it started to spread in Italy and a week after the other 3 felt it. By that time, Italy was already a nightmare scenario that countries who had yet to be affected were preparing to avoid. Countries further east in Europe had even more time to prepare.
I think more people will suffer due to the effect on the economy than the virus itself in a lot of countries. Lots of people losing their jobs and homes resorting to doing things they never thought they’d do to survive.
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US (and ROW) only prescribing Chloroquine to underlying conditions if no ventilators / respirators ‘available’.
TLdr: Chloroquine is your last hope when the hospitals are overrun. Side effects better than death
What if countries can’t avoid it Bob? Which country has avoided it so far, no matter how early they think they have locked down? Now rampant in SG, TH etc. All those showing early promise are now catching up. No way CR escapes this but admittedly, if I were an Amercian, I’d stay where you are (not like you have a choice now)
Above all, stay safe!
Based on how long some of these eBay and Amazon orders take to get here they might as well just ship the masks in a time capsule.
Anyone else feeling like time is slowing down? Things that happened 2 or 3 days ago feel like weeks to me, and a couple of weeks ago feels like months. January happened in a different life.
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This week working from home all week with the family there and just reading about this shit day In and day out felt like the longest week of my life
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Been like that for the entire Trump presidency.
Like watching a 4 year long trainwreck
Not about avoiding it. It’s about flattening the curve as to not overwhelm our healthcare system. By doing that, we can reduce fatalities and treat the condition properly. You know, that thing Americans have refused to do.
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