I’m way behind ITT, but this is obviously exactly what would happen.
2 Likes
ICWUDT
6 Likes
2020 is ridiculous. We could see the philly votes destroyed by terrorists only to win Texas for a relatively stress free election result.
6 Likes
MSNBC is saying that the Georgia early vote is 51% Republican, 42% Democrat, 7% Other. Seems bad.
Like they’ve counted them already and leaked the results?
1 Like
I doubt that - it’s probably just voter data like other states publish. Not sure where they got it from, though, as I didn’t think Georgia published that info.
I think it matters a lot what “early vote” means. Looking at Florida that seems pretty in line because they separate early voting from mail in voting.
1 Like
Ah…that’s as really good point.
On GeorgiaVotes.com, they do separate “early” from “mail-in.” Unfortunately, it’s about a 2/3 to 1/3 split.
EDIT: Then again, I suspect the “mail-in” votes skew much more heavily to Dem.
1 Like
There’s not 93% of the people registered as D or R.
Florida looks like its 45-32 for Republicans in early voting. It’s basically the opposite for Dems with mail in.
1 Like
But among those who’ve shown up to vote those numbers could still be correct. The “others” may be staying home.
The only thing they can possibly be doing is using a black box algorithm to impute party support based on the voter file (demographics and history of pulling party-affiliated primary ballots). So few people EVER vote in primaries, that it has to be highly dependent on demographics (race/age). Seems questionable considering the voter file wouldn’t include important factors like education.
For whatever it is worth, the stuff I am looking at points to the election day vote having a similar overall composition to the combined mail+early-in-person, assuming that turnout is high.
Independents are 25% or more everywhere I’ve seen. 94% of 2016 voters in Georgia have already voted. There’s just no way.
I’m guessing it was a poll asking people who voted early in person what their choice was. I can’t really think of anything else that makes sense.
I just downloaded the GA early voter data and it actually contains the names and addresses of early voters along with when the ballot was received, whether it was in person or by mail and a lot of other info. So I guess if you had another source of voter role data, you could figure out what party these people are registered to.
Edit, and you can buy a list of all GA voters that includes “last voted party” from here for $250: https://sos.ga.gov/index.php/elections/order_voter_registration_lists_and_files
This is correct. Like other totals elsewhere, it appears as though his results show an advantage for Dems in “early voting by mail” and an advantage for Reps for “early voting in person,” so it will just come down to turnout I guess.
So we got crushed in person by 22k while maintaining a 10k advantage with mail in ballots.
Let me introduce you to Tom Cotton
Cotton, while definitely a fascist, is way too much of a pencil-necked dweeb to ever gain the kind of following Trump has.
8 Likes