He’s also got Texas as close as it’s been the whole cycle.
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I don’t really understand Ohio and we now live here. For most years since I first voted in 96 I was under the impression it was a swing state and now it is struggling in the most obvious choice in my lifetime.
I hope some of the others that have moved into the area as Columbus continues it’s huge population growth can get it back. Our 2 votes that moved from Mass can finally do something in the Presidential race :). I’ll call my one time now.
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I like the national polls. They have been quite accurate two election cycles in a row, so they reassure me. Right now, Biden is +8.5, which can maybe change by at most 1 today or tomorrow. There is no universe in which the +8 national poll number is correct, but Biden loses the election.
Things have changed a little (surprisingly not that much) since then, but Nate had a tweet in early September saying if Biden wins the popular vote by 5 or more, he has 99% chance of winning.
I also use national polls to come up with my own expected margins in states to compare against state polls. Take the difference between Biden’s national lead and Hillary’s popular vote (in this case, about 6.4), and then add that number to Hillary’s margin in a state to get that state’s expected margin. When a state poll deviates from this (for example, showing Biden ahead in Ohio or Texas), I’m skeptical. It helps me create a clear mental picture of the race. Like Texas is red in any map I create, and AZ going blue seems totally reasonable (it would if +6.4 applied).
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I think this is Nates point though. National polls are useful if you don’t have state polls (just like you’re doing) but are very imperfect. We know that the makeup of Biden’s vote is different than that of Hillary’s. The national polls don’t tell us how that affects the change in each state. I don’t think it makes a lot of sense to be skeptical of State polls that don’t show the same margin change - particularly when the state polls show us the change in voter make up for that State.
I mean on the one hand this is awesome, on the other hand it kind of makes sense when you consider:
- Worst economy since the Great Depression;
- Worst handling of a pandemic since 1918;
- Worst race relations since the 60’s;
- Worst International relations since WW2
- Worse presidential corruption than even Nixon and Jackson;
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44% approval.
This country.
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Columbus is the only bright spot. Every other city is bleeding population for obvious reasons. The people leaving are educated liberal types, the people staying are racist no college whites. As someone who moved out 6 months ago my only regret is not doing so a decade ago.
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It’s not though. It’s more like 23%. The problem is people don’t vote.
I’m not talking about voting. Opinion polls routinely have his approval in the low to mid 40s.
I can’t believe you all had not seen the helmouth bad beat against the shark 
and the needle by Tony G…
Tony G was my favourite character of the pokers because of his needling, he’s so good at it and his smile makes it even worse for his oppenent once they bite.
2 all time greats at it… Enjoy.
“Are You the captain, but your not my captain” Classic.
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I woke up at 7am and managed not to look, got a few more hours of sleep and just looked.
Exhaled. Phew.
Is this pretty much it then for final poles?
I feel like we’re still missing some of the major players. We’ll probably get some more today and tomorrow.
Just NBC lending its platform to an editor of the fucking Washington Examiner
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The general assumption seems to be there are a few more coming today and tomorrow, but no specifics about what or when that I’ve seen.
Monmouth has said their PA poll is coming out early tomorrow.
Obviously I’m super nervous for Tuesday, but I think it’s better going into election day with the media conventional wisdom being “the poles could be really wrong” instead of “Trump has no chance”
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