POTUS BOWL 2020: A MEME IS A WISH YOUR <3 MAKES

Politics & News
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If I’m Trump’s evil genius, this is what I’m looking at.

My best path is FL + any other two (269 is a win for Trump in the House).

My second best path is probably to play to sweep PA+MI+WI+MN, given the geographic and demographic overlaps. Arizona is my insurance policy in case I miss on Minnesota.

The game plan is to rely on GOP chicanery in Florida, and to blow up the next officer involved shooting in each of these states, but especially MN/AZ/FL. Like, Trump is so polarizing that even if it’s a justifiable shooting, if he comes out in favor of the cop he’ll cause mass protests which he can then stoke and cause rioting. Bam, bring law and order home to the swing states.

I’d probably also tell him to announce that he’s working with Governor DeSantis to make Florida a pilot program for the vaccine when it’s first available on 11/1, due to the economic importance of Florida’s tourism and the fine leadership their wonderful governor has shown there over the past few years. Oh, and wouldn’t you know it? We’re going to be offering the vaccine for free right near the polling places in:

Sumter County
Lake County
Marion County
Etc

If you’re not familiar with those counties, @Riverman can fill you in.

Meanwhile, we’re going to forget some extension cords, and perhaps even need some COVID-19 shutdowns or experience some staffing issues or unruly mobs in Miami-Dade, Broward, Orange, etc. And oops, this conveyor belt seems to be dumping Miami-Dade’s ballots into Biscayne Bay.

Of course while we’re at it, let’s get that vaccine program running in Arizona under the fine leadership of Doug Ducey, and let’s make sure to focus that pilot program there on reaching rural areas. It’ll be easy to distribute the vaccine to urban population centers en masse in a couple weeks (IF YOU VOTE FOR THE RIGHT GUY!) but getting it to rural America is tougher. So we’ll save Maricopa and Pima Counties for later, this is about the forgotten American getting their vaccine. Vaxx and vote!

If Trump locks down those two, Biden needs to sweep PA+MI+WI+MN. Meanwhile, the Postal Service shenanigans will resume and Barr will be indicting half the Biden family.

Isn’t it fun running against an authoritarian who can weaponize the FDA, CDC, NIH, DOJ and USPS?

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If the Dems don’t have a massive plan to fuck with rural in-person voting in MN, MI, WI, and PA that they can activate at a moment’s notice in response to something like a FL/AZ vaxx and vote strategy, they’re abject morons. Just take the GOP’s entire body of work the last few elections and apply it accordingly if needed.

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That goes for the Arizona Secretary of State, too.

First idea: temperature checks outside all polling places. Oopsie, we ran out of disposable thermometers/batteries for the thermometer/whatever in rural districts. We’ll get them over here in a few hours, no biggie!

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Not saying much, but I trust olds more than I trust racist midwesterners who think black people and Latinos are taking over their pointless suburban lives.

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All of this logic is sound but I think Donnie Dumb Dumb will go all in on Florida no matter which way the wind is blowing. The state is full of undeserving rich white boomers with no taste. They’re his people! He’s gonna go back there for validation over and over again. No poll or strategist will sway him.

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I didn’t. Nate Silver didn’t.

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Vermont should be congratulated. It’s one of the most white and least Republican states.

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I didn’t.

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Just wanted to add, adanthar was especially wrong even by the standards of 2016 prognosticators. Many just figured Hillary had to win because the blue wall would hold, which is somewhat reasonable (although she was only up by two or three in PA). Adanthar pushed the idea that polling underestimated Hillary and his evidence was anecdote and conjecture.

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Nate totally clowned on himself in the 2016 primary. And didn’t Nate’s final general election prediction have Hillary as a 2:1 favorite?

To be fair, he was closer to the mark than many forecasters, but I don’t think anyone is hanging their hat on their 2016 performance.

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iirc adanthar tended to make lots of good and insightful posts on topics but would inevitably steer hard into crazy town at some point.

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Adnathar taught me to always short Ron Paul, and that’s been a valuable lesson.

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Wasn’t adanthar the one who made the first ICM software?

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While I’m not optimistic about the state, Biden leads in the polling in NC by a point or so, the Dem Senate candidate leads by several, and the state has a popular Dem governor. It should be gray on your map, not red.

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It had Hillary/Trump as 70/30 on Election Day. That’s damn good and supported by the outcome. If a model had Donald Trump as favored to win the election on E Day, that would be a terrible model, as Hillary led or tied in the final polls in all of the swing states.

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IIRC all the people who were pissed at Nate for getting it “wrong” were people who don’t understand stats and probabilities. Meaning, the vast majority of people, heh. They were judging a probabilistic model on a binary outcome.

Any of us who have played poker for any length of time knows that AA loses 20% of the time, no matter how great it looks at the start of the hand.

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My map was what I’d focus on as Trump’s strategist, not what’s in play. The Dem governor is why I’d leave it alone. The shenanigans are easier in FL and AZ, and the bang for my buck goes farther with the overlap in PA, MI, WI, MN.

Spend a few bucks there, sure, but it’s not the key state to him imo.

On the flip side, Biden is probably better served swapping FL for NC for the inverse reason. I’m not feeling great about any Biden strategy that relies heavily on the state governed by Ron DeSantis.

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Even by his own admission, Nate badly goofed the 2016 primary.

The whole election was a black swan, I’m not sure getting right or wrong tells us very much about the forecaster.

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/09/03/trump-stay-in-office/

With the exception of the “big Biden win” scenario, each of our exercises reached the brink of catastrophe, with massive disinformation campaigns, violence in the streets and a constitutional impasse. In two scenarios (“Trump win” and “extended uncertainty”) there was still no agreement on the winner by Inauguration Day, and no consensus on which candidate should be assumed to have the ability to issue binding commands to the military or receive the nuclear codes. In the “narrow Biden win” scenario, Trump refused to leave office and was ultimately escorted out by the Secret Service — but only after pardoning himself and his family and burning incriminating documents.

…

In each scenario, Team Trump — the players assigned to simulate the Trump campaign and its elected and appointed allies — was ruthless and unconstrained right out of the gate, and Team Biden struggled to get out of reaction mode. In one exercise, for instance, Team Trump’s repeated allegations of fraudulent mail-in ballots led National Guard troop to destroy thousands of ballots in Democratic-leaning ZIP codes, to applause on social media from Trump supporters. Over and over, Team Biden urged calm, national unity and a fair vote count, while Team Trump issued barely disguised calls for violence and intimidation against ballot-counting officials and Biden electors.

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Definitely the type of writing that belongs behind a paywall!

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