I know we’re not supposed to be reading too much into these early vote stats, but with the pace of new poles slowed to a trickle it’s hard not to.
Here’s the latest tally from Florida. The Dem lead has been steadily eroded, and will almost certainly be gone by the time early voting is over. So we’ll have to hope that independents break heavily for Biden and that there is more cross-party voting for Biden than there is for Trump.
I mean basically it seems like PA could ignore any SCOTUS nonsense and say “fuck you, states run elections by their own rules, and what we’re doing is waiting until everything is counted before we certify, and you’re gonna sit back and wait for us”…right? What would the repercussions be?
Well I guess they could say PA sends no electors then, and in a spot where it’s that important, I guess both Trump and Biden would be <270 so WAAF.
I don’t think they have the power to just strip PA of it’s electors. Also how do we get before the Supreme Court in this scenario?
Here’s the thing though, as the Nates have pointed out, that’s exactly what the poles show. When you line their poles up with known voters against people who have voted early, Biden is winning that vote much more than the party registration breakdown indicates. Party Registration Does Not Equal Party ID.
Same way the WI case did? I know people here were bitching about them finding a way to stick their noses into PA too. This is all farfetched, I’m just spitballing.
Yup.
Yeah that turnout map is fucking nuts too. It’s going to be close in Texas. I just don’t see how it can be close in Texas but somehow Trump pulls this out. Seems like it’s already over for any kind of win that has any legitimacy. He can still try, and maybe even succeed, at stealing it… but that’s his best case and he’s not the favorite for it to work… and it amplifies his personal legal risks like 10,000,000% from ‘might skate’ to ‘might get the death penalty’.
A fella can dream, can’t he?
I think giving Trump 50% of the ‘no party affiliation’ vote is probably inaccurate given the polling. It’s Florida so it’s going to be close. The good news is that I really doubt election day is going to favor the Republicans as much in Florida as much as it probably will in other places, because they’ve very clearly gotten a huge amount of turnout from early voting and those people can’t exactly vote again.
It’s Florida and it’s going to be close like it always is. If I hadn’t made so much money shipping melons out of Florida I’d really dislike the place.
I thought they want to call the election on Tuesday night? Wouldn’t counting those ballots help them in R counties?
Dude the governor has access to more and better armed men than they do. Way more. If this were happening in a state with a GOP executive this would be a very very real risk though. They wouldn’t actually plot to burn it down… they just would hire a third party security firm to send one unarmed 12 dollar an hour employee to guard it.
I think even in R counties, mail in ballots are likely to favor Biden. I guess it depends on how heavily R they are.
Trump acting like a winner while votes are still being counted and screaming fraud is going to invite violence that increases his odds of giving the orders on 1/21/21.
Gawd I hope the pollsters are making the classic over-correction Reaction from 2016 and things are off a couple of points and a Biden+2 is really a Biden +4.
violence in the streets post-election will not increase his chances for 1/21/21.
It’s totally different this year, and we’re honestly not sure how to read it all. All the following numbers are likely voters based on a 75% total turnout.
there are 178k registered reps and 129k registered dems in the district, with 97k NPPs.
Usually Reps in our district are the ones voting early and turning out. Reps finally passed dems in ballots returned two days ago, so that’s weird thing #1.In our district, 78k rep ballots and 76k dem ballots have been returned. 24kish NPP.
weird thing #2, dem turnout for the past two elections (2016 and 2018) was 67%. We already have 60% of dem ballots returned.
Weird thing #3: McCarthy sent a letter out to all registered reps in the state telling them to stand in line and vote even if the presidential race is called early. They are scared. They think Biden is winning, and possibly early, and they don’t want to lose any more R seats in the state. If the presidential race is called (or even looking good for Biden) by 9-10pm EST, any rep trying to vote last minute might say “fuck it” and go home. Obviously we want this. GO JOE!
A SurveyUSA poll came out saying Issa was leading by 11 points. we don’t believe it because our internals, even if they do skew dem, still show us tied, and they aren’t off by 11 points. Issa’s internals gotta be showing something similar, since he’s flooded $1.6 million of his own money into the race in the past week. We also don’t believe it because it shows the 50th being literally the trumpiest district in the country based on national trends, which isn’t true. Trump leads Biden with women and young people in this poll…which is weird because it also shows Biden only down by 4% in the district.
Anyway, off to knock and drag in Escondido. At least it’s gone blue.
